Russia emphasised its right to a “preventive” nuclear strike this week in what military analysts interpreted as a move to introduce more clarity into the national defence doctrine. These statements made on Saturday by General Yuri Baluyevsky, Chief of the General Staff, were followed by naval exercises in the North Atlantic that involved over 40 aircraft of the Air Force. Although unrelated, the developments point to a Russia that is not so much on the offensive as some think, rather, it is eager to bring its defence doctrine in line with that of the Western world and make it more up to date so that it can deal with contemporary military demands.
“We are not planning to attack anyone. But, our partners should clearly understand… that the armed forces will be used, if necessary, to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and its allies, if need be on a preventative basis, with the use of nuclear weapons, if required”, RIA-Novosti quoted General Baluyevsky as saying Saturday at a scientific conference in Moscow. He did point up, however, that “military force can and must be used to demonstrate the decisiveness of the top leadership of the country” only as “a last resort”, when all other methods have failed.
“This is a clarification of our nuclear doctrine”, Sergei Karaganov, a defence expert and the dean of the International Politics Department at the Higher School of Economics, told The Moscow News. “What [General Baluyevsky] means is [that we shall use] the doctrine of enhanced deterrence, which originated in the United States” and was used by NATO for decades. While Mr Karaganov believes the statements might be interpreted more aggressively in the West, they are mostly meant to have a psychological impact. “We have adopted a concept of pre-emption”, he said, noting that it was not previously part of Russian [post-Soviet] nuclear doctrine.
General Gennady Yevstafyev, a former military intelligence officer, believes that though General Baluyevsky made some very important and necessary clarifications, there is nothing “extraordinary” about the statements. They are in line with the doctrine President Vladimir Putin began spelling out in 2000, which announced Russian readiness to use nuclear weapons for its own defence and [the defence of] its allies.
Yevstafyev pointed out, however, that Baluyevsky’s comments should be understood in a context that includes some of the other statements made at the conference. “Soon, we may not be able to maintain missile defence”, General Yevstafyev told The Moscow News, echoing Colonel General Aleksandr Zelin, who told a conference at the Academy of Military Sciences in Moscow that over the next 12 years foreign powers will “obtain fundamentally new means and systems” and integrate intelligence, communications, and navigation, leaving almost all Russian territory vulnerable. “Under these conditions, a potential enemy will gain the ability to carry out high-precision strikes, coordinated in terms of time and space, on practically any target on Russian territory”, RIA-Novosti quoted him as saying.
As for General Baluyevsky’s statements themselves, experts doubt they will have any serious impact on relations between Russia and NATO. “This is not news for NATO”, Mr Karaganov said. “As for our allies, we will see who’s ready to join our nuclear umbrella”. Asked what potential allies might benefit from this kind of protection, Mr Karaganov pointed to countries in Asia.
The statements came against a backdrop of the biggest military exercises staged in the Atlantic since the end of the Cold War as warships and nuclear bombers successfully test-fired supersonic cruise missiles close to the Iberian Peninsula. The missile cruiser Moskva of the Russian Black Sea Fleet staged a successful live fire exercise, while 40 aircraft, including Tu-160 Blackjacks, are set to take part. Colonel General Yuri Soloviev, meanwhile, announced this week that the Moscow Region would have a second unit operating the S-400 Triumph zenith anti-missile system by the end of the year.
24 January 2008
Anna Arutunyan
Moscow Times
http://mnweekly.rian.ru/news/20080124/55305669.html (in English)
