South Ossetia: Consequences for the World and the Caucasus

Georgia planned a campaign of genocide against the peaceful citizens of South Ossetia, but, the Russian government intervened, preventing ethnic cleansings that would have been of equal extent to those in the former Yugoslavia, Darfur, Rwanda, and Somalia. Undoubtedly, Georgia systematically prepared for this war. In the past five years, military expenditures rose 40-fold. The national wealth of this relatively-small Transcaucasian state was not used not for the peaceful development of the economy, but, for military purposes. Moreover, it seemed that its actions did not serve the immediate needs of its defence, but, the aggressive attitude of the Georgian leadership did not come from the Georgian people, it came from foreign sources.

The present leader of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili tried to enflame Georgian nationalism, and rattling his sabre, boasted that he would forcibly incorporate two regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, into the Georgian state. However, as far as South Ossetia was concerned, the situation was under control due to the presence of Russian peacekeeping forces. “The USA did nothing to protect the innocent civilians of South Ossetia from Georgian aggression”, said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. As a result, this “small victorious war” far from the shores of the USA, apparently, planned in Washington, ended in a military rout and a political débâcle for Tbilisi.

Natalia Narochnitskaya, the deputy chairman of the RF Gosduma committee on international affairs, analysed the consequences of the Georgian adventure in South Ossetia. “If Russia, in accordance with its mandate of peacekeeping and protecting the lives of innocent civilians, did not interfere in the conflict, then, the threat of a widespread fire throughout the Caucasus would have become a reality. Our country protected not only its own national interests, but, also those of its neighbours, and restored the status quo in this complicated region. After restoring the peace, at the same time, Moscow gave the West to understand that after Saakashvili committed this crime with the tacit support of the USA, it is necessary to recast the discussion concerning the future of this region. We shall be not be bound by previous agreements, and, in the new strategic situation, the role of Russia in the Caucasus shall grow”, she said.

Now, the noise of artillery fire no longer muffles the words of diplomacy, and it is possible to see the foresight of Russia and “old” Western Europe in opposing the bid of Tbilisi for NATO membership. Indeed, if this had happened, the French newspaper Tribune noted, Europe would have been directly embroiled in this strange little war. In any case, western strategists should think over the worth of moving NATO eastwards, including those countries whose leaders, to put it mildly, are not characterised by maturity.

15 August 2008

Dmitri Fonin

Voice of Russia World Service

http://www.ruvr.ru/main.php?lng=rus&q=80441&cid=349&p=15.08.2008

Editor’s Note:

Indeed, there is a result in this that Condoleezza Rice overlooked in her planning of this dirty little campaign. The interests of continental Western Europe do not coincide with those of the Anglosphere. You see, the Americans believed their own propaganda. There was no “intelligence failure”, nor was there a nefarious plan by Russia to invade Georgia as soon as the conditions warranted it. Americans believe that Russia is incompetent, weak, and friendless. Most American commentators describe Russia as a soulless, decrepit, and poor totalitarian state. They made their plans accordingly. Unfortunately for them and fortunately for the world, the exact opposite was true.

The US built up this little dictator, and he began to have grandiose illusions a là Solano Lopez in the 19^th century. Is he going to end in the same way? Note well that this war began on the opening of the Olympics. Liberals and neocons in the US were angry that George Bush did not “punish” China for the events in Tibet earlier this year by boycotting the games. By encouraging Saakashvili, they would reach several objectives at the same time. It would embarrass China and take world attention away from the Olympics. It would discomfit the Russians and prove them, before the world, to be incompetent blowhards. It would be an object lesson to all, “Do not disregard the diktat of Washington, or, you shall pay a very dear price”.

Indeed, even the very plan used bears signs of following present American military operational doctrine, which indicates that it was planned by American advisors. That is, the Russians would be drawn into a battle for an objective they could not abandon, and the Georgian forces on the heights surrounding Tskhinvali would make the terrain around the city a killing zone for the Russian forces. Not a bad little plan, but, unfortunately, it was carried out by the Georgian forces, one of the most incompetent and corrupt military forces in the world. American soldiers in Iraq report that the Georgians are notorious for their thievery and lack of discipline.

Russia did not mobilise its forces, nor did it send additional mechanised forces to the region. The only out-of-theatre forces sent were a strategic reserve airborne division from Pskov and a spetsnaz regiment from Moscow. This was far from the entire Russian army, and the road network of the region would not support a much larger force, in any case. The heights were not cleared until Sunday, which indicates that it took some time to collect the forces to do the job.

Nevertheless, the Georgian forces crumpled rapidly in terrain that favoured the defence, and where they had countless opportunities to conduct a slow fighting withdrawal. Indeed, the Georgians made no attempts to interdict the Russian supply lines with special ops troops or take the Roki tunnel, which would have delayed the Russian forces immensely. All that this campaign did was to point up standing deficiencies in the Russian forces, and you can be certain that the Russian general staff is going to put them right, and in very short order. The swiftness of the Russian victory was not due to overwhelming force, but to the incompetence and corruption of not only the Georgian forces, but, the incompetence and malfeasance of Mikhail Saakashvili and his whole evil junta.

Lastly, America must understand that its bullying and intimidation must cease. Russians have opened their hearts to the Ossetian refugees, and what they have seen disgusts them, as it would any civilised and decent people. America approves of late-night rocket strikes on sleeping civilians. It is warning to all Americans, the neocons are dangerous criminals and must be stopped. Their liberal allies are just as bad. How low has America fallen? It was once not like this. Reflect on the fact that the neocon attack on Russia (for that is what it was) led to nothing more than a fatal stab wound to NATO and the increase of Russian influence throughout the world. There is a God after all, and He shall not be mocked…

BMD

The Majority of Russians Support the Present Military Operations in South Ossetia

Ruins in Tskhinvali as a result of the criminal actions of the Saakashvili junta

The majority of Russians support the government’s decision to send in the forces to end the Georgian aggression against South Ossetia. A survey by the All-Russian Centre of the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) just released here in Moscow finds the majority of respondents well informed about the tragic events in South Ossetia. In this case, older and better-educated respondents were the best-informed on the conflict, the pollsters said. More than half of those questioned laid the blame on the Georgian government, whilst 22% fingered the United States as the culprit. VTsIOM reported that the proportion of those blaming the USA increased the higher one went in educational level.

We asked Vitaly Naumkin of the Centre of Strategic and Political Studies in Moscow to elaborate on the figures obtained. “In my opinion, this reflects reality because, as far as I can judge, not everyone believes the Americans were egging the Georgians on to cross the line. Many think President Saakashvili acted with Washington’s tacit consent, but, that he got no direct orders from the Americans… I also believe that, unlike youngsters, older people simply read more newspapers. Young people mostly go for the electronic media, including the Internet. However, as to the Georgian leaders’ political and personal responsibility for what happened, this was a clear case of genocide, no doubt about that… From a lawyer’s viewpoint, however, we still need ironclad proof of their guilt”, Mr Naumkin added.

Nevertheless, almost two-thirds of the respondents agreed that Russia had every reason to move in to stop the bloodshed and create conditions for realistic peace talks.

16 August 2008

Voice of Russia World Service

http://www.ruvr.ru/main.php?lng=rus&q=80500&cid=349&p=16.08.2008

Editor’s Note:

It is interesting to note that amongst those with a higher level of education, the higher the chance that one blames the USA for this mess. This is a disturbing sign for Russian-US relations. Partially, it is due to the fact that the higher the level of education, the higher the chance that the person has facility in English. The US is paying for lionising peripheral figures such as Politovskaya and Kasparov, neither of whom had any following in Russia. In addition, the inane equivalence of Russian = Communism is found in all too many US neocon and “liberal” sources, which does not sit well with people who know right well that the present government is not Soviet in any way. In short, America has spat on the very people who could have been their best friends. “Since you’re not exactly like me, you’re evil!” There is only so much of such juvenile ranting that a decent person can take.

The Bear is back… please, don’t rile him. Remember, not only is it not very nice, it’s not very prudent.

BMD

President Medvedev Signs Off on a Ceasefire Agreement for the Georgia-South Ossetia War

President Dmitri Medvedev (1965- )

On Saturday, President Dmitri Medvedev signed a ceasefire agreement to end hostilities in the Georgia-South Ossetia war. Earlier, he consulted with leaders from South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The document, which contains six primary principles for regulating the situation, was agreed to by President Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy last Tuesday. The principles for regulating the ceasefire where enumerated by Mr Medvedev at a news conference in Moscow.

“First, all parties must renounce the use of force. Second, all parties must end all military operations in the region. Third, all parties must ensure free access to all rendering humanitarian assistance. Fourth, the Georgian forces must return to their permanent bases. Fifth, the Russian forces must withdraw to their positions as they were before the outbreak of hostilities. Before any international agreement is made, Russian forces may take all measures necessary to ensure security in the region. Lastly, international negotiation must take place on the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia so as to ensure security for them on a permanent basis”.

Georgia accepted the plan, but, it insists that it says nothing about the future status of South Ossetia.

The Georgian forces attacked Tskhinvali on the night of 7-8 August 2008. As a result, the city was wrecked, along with 10 other towns in South Ossetia. In addition, Russian peacekeeping troops were killed by their Georgian colleagues and more than 1,600 innocent Ossetian civilians were killed. Russian reinforcements were sent to the region and a military operation to force the Georgian forces to stand down was carried out. The invader was punished and suffered significant losses, whilst the security of the Ossetian civilian population and the original Russian peacekeeping force was restored. At present, a resolution is being prepared at the UN Security Council dealing with the situation in South Ossetia.

16 August 2008

Boris Chernukha

Voice of Russia World Service

http://www.ruvr.ru/main.php?lng=rus&q=80511&cid=349&p=16.08.2008

Editor’s Note:

I wanted to see the Russian text of the ceasefire agreement. Indeed, the terms are very harsh insofar as Georgia is concerned, and rightly so. Georgian forces must be pulled back to their permanent bases in Georgia proper and Russian forces have the right to destroy arms dumps and facilities directly threatening South Ossetia (and by implication, Abkhazia, as well). This means that no Georgian forces may be based in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. There is no mention of the “territorial integrity” of Georgia. In short, Georgia is being treated as a dangerous aggressor by M Sarkozy, as is proper.

This agreement means that France (and by extension, Germany and Italy) disagree vehemently with the US and the UK. This is prima facie evidence that NATO has received a fatal wound, one that the US could have avoided by not supporting this Caucasian popinjay. There is nothing in the present NATO structure that favours the “old” members. Do reflect that Turkey refused to allow US warships through the Straits by citing the Montreux Convention. The only staunch members of NATO today are some of the ex-members of the Warsaw Pact and the three very unstable and undemocratic Baltic states.

Russia has won an undisputed victory on the world stage. Its influence in Western Europe is now enhanced, and the editors of the New York Times and the Economist can fulminate all they please. The old Russian sphere of influence now exists once again, and there is nothing that the American neocons can do of it. Do not forget the prominent role played by Russia in the defeat of Napoleon and Hitler. Has the Russian bear laid the American neocons low as well? One can only hope so…

BMD

Russian Experts Doubt That Georgia’s Crimes in South Ossetia shall Receive Unbiased Attention in International Courts

This is the result of the criminality of Saakashvili… reflect on this, he ordered this deliberately…

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Thousands died as a result of Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia. Those who gave the orders to kill people just because they were Ossetians are criminals and must face justice in court. Political analysts in Russia say the world community must condemn those behind the genocide in South Ossetia. Russian experts doubt, however, that the West will pronounce an objective and unbiased judgment on the crimes in Georgia and South Ossetia. In the opinion of Yelena Guskova, the Director of the Balkan Centre at the Slav Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Science, “The current estimates of the crisis are far from impartial. One doesn’t have to look far for examples that illustrate this. The Hague-based International Tribunal for former Yugoslavia was set up to investigate war crimes on the territory of former Yugoslavia. It isn’t necessary to speak of its bias, for it’s openly anti-Serbian in nature, most trials have been against Serbs, and Serbs are condemned, as a rule. Acquittals are handed out to Croats, Bosnian Muslims, or Kosovar Albanians. When Yugoslavia turned to the international tribunal with a request to investigate NATO’s aggression in 1999, the request was rejected. Judging by this experience, I greatly doubt that the tribunal can come up with an unbiased and objective analysis on what happened in the former Yugoslavia and on what’s happening now in the Caucasus”.

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Memorial to the Ossetians killed by Georgia in the 1991 attempt to cede it to Georgia

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Natalia Narochnitskaya, the leader of the Paris branch of the Russian Non-Profit Foundation “Democracy and Cooperation Institute”, believes, “Georgia’s crimes against South Ossetia should be considered by an international criminal court. I doubt that the international community will demonstrate an unbiased and objective attitude to the developments in the Caucasus. Impartiality is crucial in estimating the horrible events of late. However, I sadly note that the western news media started to cover the developments in the Caucasus 24 hours after Georgian troops entered South Ossetia. Western media began to comment on the situation only after Russian peace-keepers entered South Ossetia. Correspondents in the West were silent when Georgian tanks levelled Ossetian villages. How can one expect objectivity on the developments in the Caucasus in the West? One can see that the western media is distorting the facts”. Meanwhile, hundreds of Russian citizens who suffered from the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia are filing the appropriate complaints to international courts and the Russian state will support them in seeking justice. Furthermore, an investigation has been launched into the killing of civilians in South Ossetia, and it’ll be conducted by the chief department of the Prosecutor-General’s investigating committee. The lower house of the Russian parliament, the RF Gosduma, is also launching an inquiry into the crimes committed by the Georgian army against the people of Ossetia.

15 August 2008

Lada Korotun

Voice of Russia World Service

http://www.ruvr.ru/main.php?lng=rus&q=80397&cid=349&p=15.08.2008

Editor’s Note:

Yes, why is the western media silent about the Georgian war crimes? At 22.05 on Thursday 7 August, some 720 to 1,440 Grad rockets (from 18 to 36 40-tube launchers, out of a Georgian total of 150 such systems), each with a warhead of 20 kilogrammes (45 pounds) of high explosive, landed on Tskhinvali within 40 seconds. It is a very small city, only some 30,000 in population. My guess is that most of those who died, were killed in the initial rocket strike, as the civilian population had no warning of the Georgian sneak attack, indeed, the Georgians had just solemnly promised hours earlier that they wouldn’t attack. Each of these rockets has the capability to destroy a small house or damage a larger building. Where’s the outrage? Where’s the thirst for justice? Apparently, one can seek justice in Kosovo, Darfur, and Rwanda, but not in Ossetia, Abkhazia, or, for that matter, Zimbabwe. The bias in this is clear. I repeat, Saakashvili’s a war criminal and deserves to dance at the end of a rope, his claims of “democracy” be damned! I suspect that I’d have much competition for the privilege of springing the trap under this monster. In fact, let one of those who lost loved ones to this monster do it. It’d only be justice.

Deus videte et iudicare!

BMD

The US Is Not Serious About Rendering Humanitarian Aid to Georgia

The dictator-President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili (1967- ), the author of the current crisis in the Caucasus, the blood of the murdered South Ossetians is on his head. He deserves to choke out his life at the end of a rope, and I would do so, if he were convicted of such, without hesitation or mercy.

The West’s leading news agencies are rife with reports about the United States sending humanitarian aid to its staunch ally in Tbilisi, whose alleged democracy is being meticulously protected and sponsored by the White House. According to the Euronews TV channel, the US allocated as much as 250,000 dollars (!) (6.153 million roubles. 170,175 euros. 133,900 UK pounds) for Tbilisi with the US Embassy in Georgia preparing a so-called aid package containing medicines, tents, blankets, and clothes worth more than one million dollars (24.612 million roubles. 681,000 euros. 536,000 UK pounds).

On the one hand, rendering humanitarian aid is a noble action, and one must offer such to those in need of it. On the other, one cannot but feel awkward about the US government move. In comparison, the average cost of an apartment in some chi-chi neighbourhoods in Manhattan in New York City stands at 1.5 million dollars (36.918 million roubles. 1.021 million euros. 803,000 UK pounds). It is clear that Washington just presented its close ally with a sum equivalent to two-thirds of the cost of an upscale apartment located in America’s business centre. Add to this the fact that in the past few years, the US has spent more than 1.3 billion dollars (885 million euros. 31.996 billion roubles. 696 million UK pounds) on military-technical supplies to Georgia, then, Washington’s current humanitarian assistance begins to be rightly seen as a cynical and ridiculous move.

In Moscow, political analyst Anatoly Stepanov said, “The figures speak for themselves. As I see it, the figures signal what goals Washington pursues in the Caucasus. In fact, in actuality, the US does not care about the regional humanitarian catastrophe caused by Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia. First of all, the Bush administration is keen to lend military support to what it called ‘a beacon of democracy in the Caucasus’, in the person of President Saakashvili. However, many now insist that Mr Saakasvili face an international trial [for his deeds]. However, sadly, realpolitik, does not cease to remain a rather cynical business”.

So, it is safe to assume that by heavily arming the Georgian military to the teeth, the White House prompted the unbalanced Georgian leadership to start the war. After the adventure had flopped, Washington reverted to its usual and favourite salvation tactics of rendering humanitarian aid, attempting to paint themselves as rescuers. However, that is a shop-worn American ruse, and no one here is surprised at it. What really raises many eyebrows is the patience with which the proud, independent, and courageous Georgian people continue to tolerate the wild escapades of their President, who accepts this miserable pittance as aid from the “world’s foremost superpower”, especially when one compares it to the cost of the armaments that the Americans supplied to him.

16 August 2008

Voice of Russia World Service

http://www.ruvr.ru/main.php?lng=rus&q=80497&cid=22&p=16.08.2008

Editor’s Note:

More money has been raised in Russia from the voluntary donations of ordinary Russians than what we see in this “official” American aid package. Russia has truly opened its heart to the refugees. Bush is absolutely clueless. He does not understand that the string of unbroken American foreign policy success on the post-Soviet space is now over. Considering that the Russian government and forces were caught flatfooted by the Georgian sneak attack, they did very well, indeed.

There is much loose talk of Russia planning this response, and being ready to pounce on Georgia at a second’s notice. If you believe that, I want to know who your supplier is. He is selling you some rather fine dope, and I want to get in on it. If one looks closely, the signs of a hurried, if not panicked, reaction are visible for all to see.

The only reason that the Georgians lost this war is because their forces, like their political leadership, were incompetent, corrupt, and bombastic. An American who served with the Georgians in Iraq told me, “They ain’t fit to flip burgers at Mickey Dee’s. They steal everything that ain’t nailed down and I’d rather have the Three Stooges watchin’ my back”. Shall the Georgians sack this immature smarkach (“snot-nosed kid” in Carpathian dialect (thanks, Pete, for that one!): editor’s note) and replace him with a reasonable alternative? Only time will tell, but, I don’t think that Cookie the Bookie is giving punters good odds on him…

I have the details for the MP Assistance Fund in an earlier post. The MP and the Patriarchate of Georgia are cooperating to see that aid goes to all suffering civilians of all nationalities. Will you help? It would not be used for political purposes, as Patriarch Ilya of Georgia and Patriarch Aleksei of the MP have kept the politicos out. It is the least we can do…

BMD

President Medvedev Signs Georgia Peace Plan

President Dmitri Medvedev (1965- )

President Dmitri Medvedev signed on Saturday a French-brokered plan on resolving conflicts in Georgia, aggravated following Tbilisi’s assault on South Ossetia on 8 August. “The Georgian-South Ossetian conflict issue was considered during a meeting of the [Russian] Security Council, and the president informed those attending that he had just signed the plan based on the six principles”, said Natalia Timakova, a presidential press secretary.

The plan contains the main principles to resolve the conflict in South Ossetia, worked out at the 12 August meeting between President Dmitri Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. These are renouncing the use of force, halting all military action, providing free access to humanitarian aid, the return of the Georgian forces to their bases, the return of Russian forces to their positions prior to combat, and the start of international discussions on the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and on ways to ensure their security. The six-point deal, altered to meet Russia’s demands, is widely seen as leaving Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in a far weaker position than before his costly attempt to seize control of South Ossetia through a military offensive, which left at least 1,600 civilians dead, by Russia’s estimates. The plan was signed by Saakashvili on Friday evening, and earlier by the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have been seeking independence from Georgia since the 1990s.

16 August 2008

RIA-Novosti

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080816/116084387.html

Editor’s Note:

It should be noted that the border that Saakashvili is bleating about is, in reality, simply the survival of Soviet internal borders, not an internationally-recognised border. Indeed, many of these internal boundaries were drawn to include inimical nationalities in a given SSR, so that Moscow could play divide and conquer. In the case of Kazakhstan and the Ukraine, large Russian areas were incorporated, to give a reliable basis of support in these regions. In short, instability exists at the heart of many of these successor states. The West should not support these borders as they are Cold War relics, drawn by Communist commissars to keep local pots boiling. There are NO truly internationally-recognised borders on the post-Soviet space.

What exists today is the result of the Smuta that began in 1991. Just as the previous Smuta ended on 4 November 1612 with the surrender of the Polish invaders in Moscow, did the current Smuta end at 22.05 Thursday 7 August 2008 with the firing of Georgian rockets at Tskhinvali (with full American connivance)? That is an interesting question that deserves its own paper! The old Smuta lasted from 1598 to 1613 and laid the foundation for the modern Russian state. The new Smuta lasted from 1991 to 2008 and it has laid the foundation for a new Russia. America must understand this fully or face the consequences.

I wish to state here that Mr Gates, the US Secretary of Defence, showed a great deal of civic courage in standing up and stating clearly that the US was sending no troops to Georgia under any circumstance. It was similar to the action of Admiral Mullen, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said that any military action against Iran would be foolhardy. Not everyone in the US is a mindless neocon. We have many cool heads that realise the mess that neocon rule under Clinton and Bush (the foreign policy vector is the same) left for the incoming president.

We have a choice. The lady… or the tiger… what shall it be?

BMD