I don’t have the time to translate this entire article. I urge you to click on this link (machine-translate it, if you must); please, read it through, it’s one of the best analyses that I’ve read on the whole situation. Time isn’t in the junta’s favour… V V Putin knows it… P A Poroshenko knows it… as do B H Obama and John Kerry… so do all the other leaders in Eurasia. This whole affair was a botched American attempt to railroad through the TTIP… the Ukrainian Crisis was only a catalyst to buffalo the EU into becoming a political, military, and economic appendage of the USA. The recent sanctions against some Magyar politicos proves it, even for the slow learners. It incensed the USA that the Magyars dared to indict American businessmen for tax evasion… what ungrateful bastards! Don’t they realise who they’re biting… hmm, I’d say that the Happy Hunkies have brains and they realise who’s their real friend and who’s their real enemy (despite having a fellow with the name “Goodfriend” (I shit you NOT) as head of the US Embassy). Besides, VVP would be happy to right a small part of Trianon for them (that is, smile at their rule over Podkarpatskaya, as long as local minorities had their rights enshrined in the Magyar Constitution)… whilst the Americans wouldn’t… need we guess where Budapest would go?
The present game isn’t over the Ukraine… the EU doesn’t want it… NATO doesn’t want it… it’s over the EU and its trade and energy ties. Washington’s gambit is now clear… unfortunately for Foggy Bottom, Chilly Hilly (Kerry is only a figurehead… Obama doesn’t know or care much about foreign affairs) met her match in Vladimir Vladimirovich. The American game was to scare the EU out of its energy ties with Russia… but offered it no real alternatives in either the near- or long-term. Ergo, it ginned up the crisis, sanctions were part of the game… but no one in Europe wants to go to war or even help the Ukraine (most view it as being in the Russian sphere, save for a small English-speaking minority… which is the only group that counts for boneheaded ignorant Anglo Americans).
VVP sits at the chessboard… he IS the Grandmaster. Obama isn’t in his league… Cameron and Harper certainly aren’t. Merkel is the only Western pol remotely close to him in ability. In any case, the USA doesn’t have any real levers against Russia… it has a negative trade balance and the trade isn’t overly large… Russia imports about 5 billion USD (205 billion Roubles. 30.7 billion Renminbi. 306 billion INR. 5.65 billion CAD. 5.7 AUD. 3.9 billion Euros. billion 3.1 UK Pounds) worth of American goods, whilst the USA buys about 17 billion USD (698 billion Roubles. 104 billion Renminbi. 1.04 trillion INR. 19.2 billion CAD. 19.4 billion AUD. 13.3 billion Euros. 10.6 billion UK Pounds) worth of goods from Russia. That is, the American ability to harm Russia is next to nil… it doesn’t have any economic levers, the EU is sluggish over further sanctions (the only real victims of sanctions were European businesses and farmers), and the USA really doesn’t have the ability to project ANY of its conventional military forces into the Russian heartland… it can only strike Russia with its strategic nuclear forces (don’t forget, the RVSN can strike the American heartland, too).
The USA can’t keep up the charade longer. It has no money or forces to commit to a ground war in Eastern Europe against a peer force (which it hasn’t faced since the end of the Korean War in 1953… the PLA and VVS did well against the boastful Anglo Americans). The US forces have the strength to deal with one major and one minor war at a time. At present, the US forces are overextended… a war in Afghanistan… a warlet against ISIS in Iraq… continuing insurgencies in Yemen, Libya, and Colombia… aiding rebels in Syria… keeping up an occupation force in Kosovo. There’s nothing left… the USA isn’t the “sole superpower”… that exists only in the fevered imaginations of neocons and Yahoo teabaggers. The USA IS a Major Power… but so are Russia and China… the USA can NOT invade either of these countries without risking Nuclear Ragnarok. Iran has Russian and Chinese guarantees… everyone knows it. Ergo, the USA isn’t going to attack it… no matter bow much John McCain or Ben Cardin fulminate.
Shall it all be over by December? I’d hope so… but the Kiev fascists could still throw a spanner into the works. Don’t forget the Uniate UPA massacres… they did it before… that means that they could do it again. There’ll be no real peace until the fictive state known as the Ukraine is dead, buried, and gone. Until then, Satan walks the earth and laughs…