The Donbass is on the Offensive!
Vitaly Podvitsky
2014
______________________________
The junta units with any military value left are in the northern strategic direction around Donetsk and Lugansk. Apparently, the junta leadership didn’t even think of creating a defence in-depth, rather, they had blind faith that their blitzkrieg would succeed. On the southern strategic direction, organised resistance collapsed, leaving only the area around Volnovakha as the sole block to a VSN (Novorossiya Armed Forces) advance on Zaporozhe. The success of any further exploitation to the west will depend on whether the junta transfers units from the northern direction near Lugansk/Donetsk to the southern direction near Mariupol, as well as how quickly the VSN reduces any pockets of resistance.
One shouldn’t expect that the offensive of the VSN would continue at its present pace. For now, the VSN must secure its LOCs and reduce pockets of junta resistance. True, the mopping up is going well. Ilovaisk, Yelenovsk, and Amvrosievsk are almost completely secured and clear of enemy forces. The fighting near Starobeshevo-Volnovakha is still underway. Media reports haven’t said so specifically, but unconfirmed reports indicate that junta troops acceded to a VSN ultimatum, and hastily evacuated from their wounded, dead, and hostages from the pocket. Isolated groups of Natsgadi fanatics and some regular troops refused to leave. The VSN surrounds Mariupol on the landward side. It’s preparing for a possible future assault on the area.
Some points are worthy of mention. For the first time, there were massive surrenders of Natsgadi and “volunteer units”. Portions of battalions just quit their positions and left the war zone (in particular, the Territorial Defence Battalions from Vinnitsa and Ivano-Frankovsk). This suggests that morale in the junta forces is in the toilet (e.g. 9 Battalion from Vinnitsa “vamoosed” from the combat zone after losing 2-3 people killed.). In the northern DNR, there was only local skirmishing. This looks like it’s going to be fairly quiet sector in future.
As expected, disaster looms near Lugansk… for the junta. A VSN offensive in the bend of the Seversky Donets River north of Lugansk forced junta forces to begin an emergency evacuation of the airport, Lutugino, and Bely (the airport and Lutugino are already secure). The meaning is clear. With the loss of Veseloi Gori, and Schastye (already taken by the VSN), the remaining junta forces (the still-capable 80 Brigade and a Battalion of the 1 Tank Brigade) won’t be able to move to the north without significant losses. In the coming days, expect them to attempt to break out of the pocket and advance towards the bridge over the Seversky Donets River near Schastye and to try to prevent VSN forces from reaching it first.
On the southern strategic direction, a VSN assault on Mariupol is possible (but not likely), that probably won’t happen until the offensive operation in the area is complete. On the northern strategic direction, for the next day or two, the VSN will reduce all the pockets south of Donetsk. Near Lugansk, everything will centre on the positions of the 80 Brigade and its attached units. The VSN will spend about a week in regrouping and sweeps, perhaps, after then we’ll see another “big push” by the VSN.
The junta faces the unenviable task of stabilising the front on the southern strategic direction. It’s tried to patch the gaps punched by the VSN in its lines. They’re trying to beef up Mariupol before a possible assault (which is why the Dnepr-1 Battalion directly subordinate to Kolomoisky withdrew from the combat zone). On the northern strategic direction, they have to form a mechanised task force to parry any possible VSN attacks. However, if you can’t withdraw the 80 Brigade and the 1 Tank Brigade to use as a strategic reserve, well, how will you form it? Therefore, look at the battles occurring to the south and west of Lugansk. That will tell you a lot. In general, it isn’t important to consider what the junta wants… the initiative is firmly in the VSN’s hands.
2 September 2014
Donbass Tsentr
http://donbass.center/news/993-ukrainskaya-armiya-terpit-porazheniya-absolyutno-po-vsem-frontam.html
Voices from Russia 
Junta Army Routed on All Fronts
Tags: civil unrest, DNR, Donetsk People's Republic, LNR, Lugansk People's Republic, Novorossiya, political commentary, politics, Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Ukrainian Civil War, war and conflict
The Donbass is on the Offensive!
Vitaly Podvitsky
2014
______________________________
The junta units with any military value left are in the northern strategic direction around Donetsk and Lugansk. Apparently, the junta leadership didn’t even think of creating a defence in-depth, rather, they had blind faith that their blitzkrieg would succeed. On the southern strategic direction, organised resistance collapsed, leaving only the area around Volnovakha as the sole block to a VSN (Novorossiya Armed Forces) advance on Zaporozhe. The success of any further exploitation to the west will depend on whether the junta transfers units from the northern direction near Lugansk/Donetsk to the southern direction near Mariupol, as well as how quickly the VSN reduces any pockets of resistance.
One shouldn’t expect that the offensive of the VSN would continue at its present pace. For now, the VSN must secure its LOCs and reduce pockets of junta resistance. True, the mopping up is going well. Ilovaisk, Yelenovsk, and Amvrosievsk are almost completely secured and clear of enemy forces. The fighting near Starobeshevo-Volnovakha is still underway. Media reports haven’t said so specifically, but unconfirmed reports indicate that junta troops acceded to a VSN ultimatum, and hastily evacuated from their wounded, dead, and hostages from the pocket. Isolated groups of Natsgadi fanatics and some regular troops refused to leave. The VSN surrounds Mariupol on the landward side. It’s preparing for a possible future assault on the area.
Some points are worthy of mention. For the first time, there were massive surrenders of Natsgadi and “volunteer units”. Portions of battalions just quit their positions and left the war zone (in particular, the Territorial Defence Battalions from Vinnitsa and Ivano-Frankovsk). This suggests that morale in the junta forces is in the toilet (e.g. 9 Battalion from Vinnitsa “vamoosed” from the combat zone after losing 2-3 people killed.). In the northern DNR, there was only local skirmishing. This looks like it’s going to be fairly quiet sector in future.
As expected, disaster looms near Lugansk… for the junta. A VSN offensive in the bend of the Seversky Donets River north of Lugansk forced junta forces to begin an emergency evacuation of the airport, Lutugino, and Bely (the airport and Lutugino are already secure). The meaning is clear. With the loss of Veseloi Gori, and Schastye (already taken by the VSN), the remaining junta forces (the still-capable 80 Brigade and a Battalion of the 1 Tank Brigade) won’t be able to move to the north without significant losses. In the coming days, expect them to attempt to break out of the pocket and advance towards the bridge over the Seversky Donets River near Schastye and to try to prevent VSN forces from reaching it first.
On the southern strategic direction, a VSN assault on Mariupol is possible (but not likely), that probably won’t happen until the offensive operation in the area is complete. On the northern strategic direction, for the next day or two, the VSN will reduce all the pockets south of Donetsk. Near Lugansk, everything will centre on the positions of the 80 Brigade and its attached units. The VSN will spend about a week in regrouping and sweeps, perhaps, after then we’ll see another “big push” by the VSN.
The junta faces the unenviable task of stabilising the front on the southern strategic direction. It’s tried to patch the gaps punched by the VSN in its lines. They’re trying to beef up Mariupol before a possible assault (which is why the Dnepr-1 Battalion directly subordinate to Kolomoisky withdrew from the combat zone). On the northern strategic direction, they have to form a mechanised task force to parry any possible VSN attacks. However, if you can’t withdraw the 80 Brigade and the 1 Tank Brigade to use as a strategic reserve, well, how will you form it? Therefore, look at the battles occurring to the south and west of Lugansk. That will tell you a lot. In general, it isn’t important to consider what the junta wants… the initiative is firmly in the VSN’s hands.
2 September 2014
Donbass Tsentr
http://donbass.center/news/993-ukrainskaya-armiya-terpit-porazheniya-absolyutno-po-vsem-frontam.html