7 September 2014. Why the LNR and DNR Agreed to the Truce… And Why It Might Hold for a Week (But No More)

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Everyone’s aware of the infrastructure damage in the DNR and LNR due to the Ukrainian Civil War. Yes, the Uniate junta is abusing the present truce… but no one expected otherwise, and the patriots are watching the Uniates carefully (as one must). The LNR and DNR authorities were NOT forced to sign the accords. They get several pluses from this short tactical hiatus:

• Urgent infrastructure repairs can move forward. In particular, the electricity supply grid and the water supply pipelines both needed repairs. They’re doing those now.
• The VSN received a needed rest. It can not only rest, but bring up supplies to forward units.
• The civilian population received a respite from the war, allowing some “decompression” time.
• The LNR and DNR can move in supplies from Russia, as they control the border crossing points in their area and the junta forces can’t fire at the trucks delivering the cargo as long as the truce holds.
• Food and other civilian goods can move unimpeded for the time being.

Therefore, one can see that the DNR and LNR had solid reasons for inking the agreement, even though they knew that it was fleeting and that the Uniates would violate it. In any case, the faults of the junta are systemic, and no amount of hiatus or truce will remedy them:

• Morale in the junta forces is in the shitter. There were two purges of the officer corps, which means that the present crop of higher commanders is more politically reliable than militarily competent. The lower officers mainly have no stomach for the war. The rankers are mostly pressed men… most of the long-service troops are either dead, rallied to the patriots/Russians, or deserters.
• The Grivna is in freefall. It’s lost 50 percent in value since the beginning of the war.
• Natural gas supplies are running out and the patriots control the coalmines. The energy crisis is real and continues.
• Unemployment rises as enterprises tied to the Russian market (that is, most businesses) make workers redundant.
• Effectual control of the “street” is in the hands of fascist toughs, oligarch armed bands, and outright Mafiosi (normal people prefer the last, as they’re the most just of the lot… that is, they prefer Balogh to Kolomoisky or Tyagnibok).
• The “army” is a mixed bag of former Ukrainian Army units, “volunteer” battalions, oligarch armed bands, “Territorial Defence Battalions” of pressed men, and Euromaidantsy terrorist “National Guard” with no common command structure, no coherent military doctrine, and no real training (merely putting a man in a uniform and giving him a gun a soldier does not make).
• Poroshenko is a figurehead for a committee of American puppets… the real triumvirate is Yatsenyuk, Turdchinov, and Avakov… all of whom are American toadies.

Let’s not be coy… if the truce were to mature into a real peace, the junta wouldn’t be long for this world due to its internal contradictions. That is, it did get something from its violations of the present truce, but the patriots were aware of that when they signed it, and they signed it because the truce, no matter how short it’d be, would give them real advantages in the end over the junta. Don’t be buffaloed by ignorant pundits like Rod Dreher… look at the real situation. Real people make real decisions in the real world based on real benefits. That’s what happened here. No matter what, the junta’s down for the count. All of Obama’s horses, and all of McCain’s men, couldn’t put Ukraina together again…

BMD

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