In Russian military usage, a “boiler” or “cauldron” is what English-speaking armies call a “pocket”… a unit surrounded by the enemy, unable to move or get supplies. That is, the VSN has “pocketed” the Uniate aggressors in Debaltsevo and Ilovaisk. Oh… the figure is Cheburashka… a very popular Soviet/Russian pop culture figure (it’s like using Sponge Bob or Bugs Bunny).
BMD
Read this. “Three battalion groups of 800 men backed by 40 tanks”… firstly, that’s the total upfront rifle strength of three motor rifle battalions and forty tanks is one tank battalion (that’s 27 rifle platoons… but that’s only the infantry elements of the unit). However, a full-strength brigade group with arty and armoured elements would be about 3,000 to 4,000. There’s some crossed wires here… 800 men is ONE understrength battalion-group (infantry battalion of three rifle companies, a heavy weapons company, an artillery battery, an engineer company, and support services).
Furthermore, it’s clear from the description that the junta forces didn’t follow standard Russian tactical doctrine (all pre-junta officers had training in such). Firstly, an armoured spearhead advances behind a rolling barrage. The post mentions none of that. In fact, it doesn’t even seem that the infantry used standard “infiltration” tactics, which have been standard in all armies since the Germans introduced them in the late stages of World War I. In fact, it appeared that they used sloppy frontal assault tactics, with a correspondingly high butcher’s bill. It’s clear that they didn’t employ “bounding overwatch”, where one element advances under the covering fire of a support element. That argues that the junta forces engaged were untrained Galician Uniate fanatics. A two-week “training course” doesn’t equip a soldier with the skills necessary to survive the modern battlefield. Again, like the airport, it’s clear that they needed a division-equivalent … but only deployed a brigade-equivalent… without enough artillery support to ensure success. Where was the junta artillery and MRLs? Why, the junta is using them for terror bombardments of the civilian population! Also, note that there’s no mention of air support nor heliborne spetsnaz elements to seize key communications junctions in advance of the main echelon.
The author of this article is a boob. These units were NOT “shock battalions”… they only had a sketchy course at an airport training camp! The standard rule-of-thumb is that it takes 6 to 9 months to “build” and “shake down” a division from scratch… 12 months is even better. Units with less “seasoning” tend to fall apart in combat in short order, as these untrained and undisciplined mobs did. On top of that, it’s clear that there was no professional staff work and that there weren’t adequate reserves for the offensive. It really needed two brigade-equivalents upfront and another brigade in reserve to respond to unforeseen situations. THAT MEANS THAT THIS PALTRY EFFORT IS ALL THAT THE UNIATE JUNTA IS CAPABLE OF. Not only is there massive draft dodging, there’s reports of partizan activity. Ergo, supplies aren’t moving forward as they should and the need to garrison rear areas ties down troops in local defence.
However… here’s the important takeaway… where was the air force? Supposedly, the junta has air superiority. However, the air force has been MIA since the early stages of the conflict. You see, pilots take a long time to train. Let’s see… the junta purged some of the pilots… some went over to the VSN… others were shot down by VSN air defence… it may well be that the lack for the junta isn’t aircraft, but aircrews! Also, it argues that the VSN is well-able to operate the SAM systems left by the junta on its territory, which means that a certain amount of pre-junta long-service personnel are in the VSN to operate them. Note well that the author of this post doesn’t even consider this point.
Another point not touched upon is how badly the junta forces are organised and how fractured the command structure is. Literally, there’s no command echelon between brigade and corps… there are no division HQs. Besides that, most of the junta forces deployed are independent battalions not formally attached to this-or-that brigade. If that wasn’t bad enough, some units are under the Minoborony Ukrainy… some are under the VV MVDU… some are “National Guard” bandit bands notionally under the MVDU (NOT the Minoborony)… some are under the SBU… some are oligarch-raised and –paid mobs. The Minister of Defence is an incompetent militarised cop… not a soldier… the junta shitcanned real soldiers, as they tended to tell the politicians to go fuck themselves, in so many words.
By the way, the VSN reacted according to standard Russian tactical doctrine, which is to fix the enemy and then strike them with an armoured counterattack. Of course, many of the long-service pre-junta officers of the “Ukrainian” army are in the VSN… this shows that. The actions of the VSN are those of competent long-service professionals, whereas the junta’s actions are those of untrained fanatics… its Langemarck and the kamikazes, all over again.
Be careful of what you read on social-networking sites. There’s a lot of bullshit circulating now. That’s why I’m not really posting on the “ceasefire” yet… the situation is so fluid that it could completely flip in 24 hours. Have a care… there be cowpats in that there field for the unwary… shit is HARD to clean off one’s boots…
BMD
I’ve been following the news about the so-called “Minsk ceasefire”… actually, it’s “much ado about nothing”. The junta pigs are still shelling patriot areas. The fighting still rages over Debaltsevo. Uniate terrorists are caught hourly in Donetsk and Lugansk. In short, there’s LESS THAN NOTHING. If the junta pulls out of the complete territories of the DNR and LNR… then, and only then could we speak of a real ceasefire. THIS? It’s not even an armistice for 24 hours.
The Uniates have been treacherous ever since their inception in 1596. You trust them at your own peril.
BMD
Voices from Russia 
Rada Deputy Former Azov Battalion Big Spits on Minsk Accords
Tags: civil unrest, Novorossiya, political commentary, politics, Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Ukrainian Civil War, war and conflict
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Igor Moseichuk, radical Rada People’s Deputy and former deputy commander of the irregular Azov Battalion, which isn’t under Minoborony Ukrainy control, said on his Facebook page that he’d defy the Minsk Accords and would exert strenuous efforts in the Rada to upset implementing these agreements, saying, “It’s an act of treason and a betrayal of national interests. This is the only way to describe the text regarding the implementation of the Minsk Accords that Leonid Kuchma signed with the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics on behalf of the Ukraine. That arrangement envisages elections in the territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk Oblasts (sic) that’d let the self-proclaimed republics’ (sic) representatives come to power in a legitimate way”.
Earlier, Moseichuk was deputy commander for public relations of the Azov Battalion. Since November 2014, he’s been a Rada People’s Deputy of the Radical Party. In the media, he earned notoriety for shooting at a portrait of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in public. Now, the Azov Battalion is in Mariupol. Over recent days, it tried to attack VSN positions near Shirokino. Numerous detachments not subordinate to the junta authorities are taking part the aggression in Novorossiya, including Right Sector units and the Aidar Battalion.
On Friday, at a meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council, Russian OSCE envoy Andrei Kelin said that there isn’t any certainty the paramilitaries bankrolled by the oligarchs would support a Ukrainian peace settlement, saying, “How can one guarantee the armed groups not subordinate to the central command in Kiev will agree to obey anything? In fact, they’re the armed groups mentioned in the Minsk Accords. There’s no certainty that they’d support a peaceful diplomatic settlement the way we did. We must disarm them and pull them out of the combat zone”.
13 February 2015
ITAR-TASS
http://tass.ru/en/world/777430
Editor:
Do you see why I refuse to make any “predictions” or issue a précis now? No one knows what’s up… only one thing is certain… there’s no real Ukrainian government and the devil alone knows anything. To say that the situation’s Jabberwockian is a no-brainer… no one knows if Poroshenko will last the next 24 or if the USA would “pull a Diệm” on him. After all, he failed, and for the Anglos, that’s it… “Winning is the only thing”… you forget that at your peril.
BMD