________________________________
Today, at a briefing in Donetsk, DNR Deputy Defence Minister E А Basurin told journalists that the junta uses the ceasefire as a cover for their preparations for a summer offensive in Novorossiya, “Poroshenko is trying to save his government, but it’s hardly possible given the complete failure of its social and economic policy. Kiev can only hope for another major inflow of Western cash, to extend its stay in power in the short-term. In the near future, we don’t expect frontal attacks our positions by Ukrainian infantry and armour. Our intel indicates that the Ukrainian side changed its operational doctrine dramatically due to influence from NATO, especially American, military advisors. The primary focus of the summer campaign will be to degrade our economic potential, to damage our transportation, energy, and social infrastructure through regular shelling from artillery systems of all sorts. Their main goal would be to weaken our forces through diminishing our economic base, and, coincidentally, erode our societal support. We in the DNR stand 100 percent behind the ceasefire, and we’ll definitely fulfil our obligations under it. However, we’d meet any attempt by the Ukrainian side to seize the Donbass through the use of new tactics by its forces, despite the formal stipulation of the Minsk Agreement regarding withdrawal of heavy artillery, with an appropriate response”.
20 May 2015
DAN Donetsk News Agency
http://dan-news.info/defence/kiev-gotovit-novuyu-strategiyu-letnej-nastupatelnoj-operacii-basurin.html
Editor:
Note well that the “Ukrainian Air Force” no longer exists as a combat-capable force. This is due to three factors. Firstly, the insane Galician Uniate nationalist purges kicked out competent pilots from the forces, mostly for the sin of being Russian. Secondly, patriot air defences inflicted heavy losses on junta aircraft. Most of these patriot gunners served in the Soviet and Ukrainian forces in the PVO (Anti-Air Command), so, it didn’t take them long to get their groove back. Besides that, “Ukrainian” PVO troops who rallied to Russia in the Crimea form the hard professional cadre, along with purged “Ukrainian” elements who made their way to Free Novorossiya and prewar “Ukrainian” elements based in Novorossiya that rallied to the patriot cause from the first. Thirdly, common buzz has it that Russian PVO units (radar, SAMs, and AAA) in the Russian Federation can cover patriot territory, and that Russia won’t allow any bombing of patriot forces or civilian concentrations. I don’t know how true that is, but I’ve heard that from several sources, so, I’d rate it as “possible” (there’s not enough evidence to make it “probable” yet).
As for the American advisors, I’d observe that such advisors didn’t bring victory in Vietnam or in Georgia. There’s no rationalisation of the chaotic structure of the junta “forces”. Besides that, their organisation is loopy. Due to a lack of trained officers (particularly, staff officers), there is an entire level of command missing in the junta forces. There are no Division HQs between the brigade and corps level. This increases the incoherency of the C3I chain. That is, corps commanders, who normally only deal with division commanders, have to deal with a larger number of brigade commanders. If that wasn’t all, many of the junta units are independent battalions and smaller formations. Thus, a corps commander doesn’t only have to deal with a larger set of brigade commanders (due to the lack of divisional commanders and staffs), but also with a largish set of battalion commanders not under higher formations. This is a recipe for disaster, and the Americans aren’t touching that. I’d say that the junta defeat at the Debaltsevo Pocket was due to this jumbled and confused command chain. Orders and supplies couldn’t move efficiently, so, the patriot forces destroyed the junta militants piecemeal… one band at a time. Debaltsevo proved the utter incompetence of the junta officer corps… the Americans can’t improve that in the short-term.
The result will be like that of the South Ossetia War… the American advisors will send back glowing reports to the Pentagon… then, they’re going to have to run like hell when the local forces take French Leave. You see, if American advisors tell the truth, the DoD brass would replace them with those who’ll tell the bosses what they want to hear. This is looking like Saigon in 1975. Are Americans going to flee Kiev in their helos just as they did in Vietnam? We’ll have to see. Morale in the junta forces is in the shitter. Stay tuned…
BMD
Voices from Russia 
Basurin sez Junta Using Ceasefire as a Cover to Prepare Summer Offensive
Tags: civil unrest, DNR, Donetsk People's Republic, Novorossiya, political commentary, politics, Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Ukrainian Civil War, United States, USA, war and conflict
________________________________
Today, at a briefing in Donetsk, DNR Deputy Defence Minister E А Basurin told journalists that the junta uses the ceasefire as a cover for their preparations for a summer offensive in Novorossiya, “Poroshenko is trying to save his government, but it’s hardly possible given the complete failure of its social and economic policy. Kiev can only hope for another major inflow of Western cash, to extend its stay in power in the short-term. In the near future, we don’t expect frontal attacks our positions by Ukrainian infantry and armour. Our intel indicates that the Ukrainian side changed its operational doctrine dramatically due to influence from NATO, especially American, military advisors. The primary focus of the summer campaign will be to degrade our economic potential, to damage our transportation, energy, and social infrastructure through regular shelling from artillery systems of all sorts. Their main goal would be to weaken our forces through diminishing our economic base, and, coincidentally, erode our societal support. We in the DNR stand 100 percent behind the ceasefire, and we’ll definitely fulfil our obligations under it. However, we’d meet any attempt by the Ukrainian side to seize the Donbass through the use of new tactics by its forces, despite the formal stipulation of the Minsk Agreement regarding withdrawal of heavy artillery, with an appropriate response”.
20 May 2015
DAN Donetsk News Agency
http://dan-news.info/defence/kiev-gotovit-novuyu-strategiyu-letnej-nastupatelnoj-operacii-basurin.html
Editor:
Note well that the “Ukrainian Air Force” no longer exists as a combat-capable force. This is due to three factors. Firstly, the insane Galician Uniate nationalist purges kicked out competent pilots from the forces, mostly for the sin of being Russian. Secondly, patriot air defences inflicted heavy losses on junta aircraft. Most of these patriot gunners served in the Soviet and Ukrainian forces in the PVO (Anti-Air Command), so, it didn’t take them long to get their groove back. Besides that, “Ukrainian” PVO troops who rallied to Russia in the Crimea form the hard professional cadre, along with purged “Ukrainian” elements who made their way to Free Novorossiya and prewar “Ukrainian” elements based in Novorossiya that rallied to the patriot cause from the first. Thirdly, common buzz has it that Russian PVO units (radar, SAMs, and AAA) in the Russian Federation can cover patriot territory, and that Russia won’t allow any bombing of patriot forces or civilian concentrations. I don’t know how true that is, but I’ve heard that from several sources, so, I’d rate it as “possible” (there’s not enough evidence to make it “probable” yet).
As for the American advisors, I’d observe that such advisors didn’t bring victory in Vietnam or in Georgia. There’s no rationalisation of the chaotic structure of the junta “forces”. Besides that, their organisation is loopy. Due to a lack of trained officers (particularly, staff officers), there is an entire level of command missing in the junta forces. There are no Division HQs between the brigade and corps level. This increases the incoherency of the C3I chain. That is, corps commanders, who normally only deal with division commanders, have to deal with a larger number of brigade commanders. If that wasn’t all, many of the junta units are independent battalions and smaller formations. Thus, a corps commander doesn’t only have to deal with a larger set of brigade commanders (due to the lack of divisional commanders and staffs), but also with a largish set of battalion commanders not under higher formations. This is a recipe for disaster, and the Americans aren’t touching that. I’d say that the junta defeat at the Debaltsevo Pocket was due to this jumbled and confused command chain. Orders and supplies couldn’t move efficiently, so, the patriot forces destroyed the junta militants piecemeal… one band at a time. Debaltsevo proved the utter incompetence of the junta officer corps… the Americans can’t improve that in the short-term.
The result will be like that of the South Ossetia War… the American advisors will send back glowing reports to the Pentagon… then, they’re going to have to run like hell when the local forces take French Leave. You see, if American advisors tell the truth, the DoD brass would replace them with those who’ll tell the bosses what they want to hear. This is looking like Saigon in 1975. Are Americans going to flee Kiev in their helos just as they did in Vietnam? We’ll have to see. Morale in the junta forces is in the shitter. Stay tuned…
BMD