Voices from Russia

Sunday, 27 December 2015

On the 19th Day of Christmas…

00 Quo vadis. ukraina. kiev. 21.03.15

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With all the action in Syria, the Ukraine is no longer a subject for discussion in the West. In Russia, where the Ukraine is still a major problem looming on the horizon, and where some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees are settling in, with no intentions of going back to what’s left of the Ukraine, it’s still actively discussed. However, for the USA and for the EU, it’s now yet another major foreign policy embarrassment, and the less said about it the better. In the meantime, the Ukraine is in full-blown collapse… all five glorious stages of it… setting the stage for a Ukrainian Nightmare Before Christmas, or shortly after.

Phase 1

Financially, as of a couple of days ago, the Ukrainian government is in sovereign default. The IMF had to break its own rules to keep it on life support even though it’s clearly a deadbeat. In the process, the IMF stiffed Russia, which happens to be one of its major shareholders; what gives?

Phase 2

Industry and commerce are approaching a standstill and the country is rapidly deindustrialising. Formerly, most of the trade was with Russia; now, this is over. The Ukraine doesn’t make anything that the EU might want, except maybe prostitutes. Recently, the Ukraine has sold off its dirt. This is illegal, but given what’s been happening there, the term “illegal” is the stuff of comedy.

Phase 3

Politically, the Ukrainian government is a total farce. They turned over much of it to fly-by-night foreigners, such as former Georgian president Saakashvili, who’s a wanted criminal in his own country, which recently stripped him of his citizenship. The parliament is full of criminals who bought their seat to gain immunity from prosecution, and who spend their time brawling with each other. Recently, someone hauled Prime Minister Yatsenyuk off the podium by his crotch; how dignified is that? He seemed unfazed. Where are his testicles? Perhaps, Victoria Nuland over at the US State Department keeps them in a jar. This sort of action may be fun to watch on YouTube, but the reality is quite sad… those who “run” the Ukraine (if the term still applies) are only interested in one thing… stealing whatever is left.

Phase 4

Ukrainian society (if the term still applies) has been split into a number of warring factions. To some extent, this was inevitable. What else would happen if you take bits of Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Russia, and stuck them together willy-nilly? Well, results may vary; but if you also spend 5 billion USD (354 billion Roubles. 32.32 billion Renminbi. 331 billion INR. 6.91 billion CAD. 6.86 billion AUD. 4.56 billion Euros. 3.37 billion UK Pounds) (as the Americans did) to turn “Ukrainians” against Russia (since they’re mostly Russian, against themselves), then, you get a complete disaster.

Phase 5

Cultural collapse is quite advanced. Once, the Ukraine had the same world-class educational system as Russia, but since independence they switched to teaching in Ukrainian (a made-up language) using nonexistent textbooks. They taught kids a bogus history hallucinated by rabid Ukrainian nationalists. They told them that Russia is backward and keeping them back, and that they deserve to be happy in the EU (just like the Greeks? Yeah…). However, now, the population is at levels of poverty not commonly seen outside of Africa; to merely survive, young people flee or turn to gangsterism and prostitution. This doesn’t make for a happy cultural narrative. What does it mean to be “a Ukrainian” now? Expletives deleted… sorry I asked.

Now, here’s what it all really means. With so much going wrong, the Ukraine hasn’t been able to secure enough natural gas or coal supplies to provide a supply cushion in case of a cold snap this winter. A few weeks of frosty weather would deplete supplies, then, pipes will freeze, rendering much of the urban areas unliveable from then on (because, recall, there’s no longer any money or any industry to speak of to repair the damage). That seems bad enough, but we aren’t quite there yet. You see, the Ukraine produces over half of its electricity using nuclear power plants. 19 nuclear reactors are in operation, with 2 more supposedly under construction. This is in a country whose economy is in free-fall, set to approach that of Mali or Burundi! Russia used to supply nuclear fuel for these reactors. An effort to replace the Russian supplier with Westinghouse failed because of quality issues leading to an accident. What is a bankrupt Ukraine, which just stiffed Russia on billions of sovereign debt, going to do when the time comes to refuel those 19 reactors? Good question!

Nevertheless, an even better question is, “Will they even make it that far?” You see, due to lack of funds, we’ve found out that these nuclear installations skimped on preventive maintenance. Now, you’re probably already aware of this, but let me spell it out… a nuclear reactor isn’t one of those things that you run until it breaks, then, you call a mechanic once it does. It isn’t a “If it ain’t broke, I can’t fix it” sort of scenario. It’s more of a “You missed a tune-up, so, I ain’t going near it” scenario. The way to keep it from breaking is to replace all the bits listed on the replacement schedule no later than the dates indicated on that schedule. It’s either that or the thing goes “Ka-boom!” and everyone’s hair falls out.

How close is the Ukraine to a major nuclear accident? Well, it turns out, very close… recently, they narrowly avoided one when some Ukro-Nazis blew up electric transmission lines supplying the Crimea, triggering a blackout that lasted many days. The Russians scrambled and ran a transmission line from the Russian mainland, so, now, the Crimea is lit up again. Nevertheless, in the meantime, the Southern Ukrainian, with its 4 energy blocks, lost its connection to the grid, and it was only very swift expert actions taken by staff there that averted a nuclear accident.

I hope that you know this already, but let me spell it out again. One of the worst things that can happen to a nuclear reactor is loss of electricity supply. Yes, nuclear power stations make electricity… some of the time… but they must have electricity all the time to avoid a meltdown. This is what happened at Fukushima Daiichi… it dusted the ground with radionuclides as far as Tokyo and it still leaks radioactive juice into the Pacific. Therefore, the nightmare scenario for the Ukraine is a simple one. The temperature drops below freezing and stays there for a couple of weeks. Coal and natural gas supplies run down, thermal power plants shut down, the electric grid fails; ergo, circulator pumps at the 19 nuclear reactors (which, by the way, probably haven’t been overhauled as recently as they should have been) stop pumping… meltdown!

So, if you want to say a prayer for the Ukraine this holiday season, don’t bother because it’s well and truly fucked, but do say a prayer for global warming. If this winter stays very, very warm, then, we just may avert the “19 Fukushimas” scenario. This isn’t impossible… we’ve seen one freakishly warm winter after another; each passing month sets new records. The future looks “hot”… as in “very warm”. Let’s pray that it doesn’t also turn out to be “hot”…. as in “radioactive”.

22 December 2015

Dmitri Orlov

ClubOrlov

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/12/on-19th-day-of-christmas.html#more

Comment from Paul Craig Roberts:

Washington Added the Ukraine to the Long List of Countries Destroyed by Washington

The criminal thugs who form the US government have now destroyed the Ukraine, adding another scalp to their 21st century collection of scalps from Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and large parts of Syria and Pakistan. The American military/security complex has grown mega-rich at the expense of a vast proportion of mankind. American “patriots,” brainwashed by the presstitute media, support the most egregious and least justified war crimes in human history. Moral peoples everywhere regard the USA as “the Great Satan”. Dmitri Orlov sets out the disastrous scenario awaiting the Ukraine. Insouciant Americans should understand that what goes around, comes around.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/12/23/washington-has-added-ukraine-to-the-long-list-of-countries-destroyed-by-washington/

Comment from Mark Chapman:

It’s worth mentioning here that nobody should be happy about the Ukraine coming to complete ruin, either. Like most people, I seethed at the fascist rubbish broadcast by the government popinjays and at the anti-Russian blabber from the strutting nationalists, not to mention the slick propaganda of the Western-produced “I Am a Ukrainian”. Indeed, it’s sweet to see them get their comeuppance, because it would’ve been intolerable to see such a project succeed, and the West rewarded for its perfidy. If anyone remains who has yet to take in the lesson, “Beware of Westerners bearing gifts”. Yet, there remain millions of Ukrainians who bought the saccharine stories of streets paved with gold filled with happy, laughing, spending Europeans, and prosperity all around. That they didn’t speak up when their country attacked its eastern regions using the state military forces… a violation of both the Ukrainian Constitution and international humanitarian law… is something that they’ll have to live with for the years which remain to them. Nevertheless, the vociferous goose-steppers are a minority; when it all falls apart, many of them will have the wherewithal to simply disappear elsewhere. The millions of bewildered Ukrainians left in the ruins will lose everything, including their best friends; they’ll earn the hatred of the former eastern part of the country for at least a generation. They’ll be too poor to do anything but dig in and endure. Spare a moment of pity for them. It wouldn’t be the first time someone came to grief from listening to a slick huckster only out for his own interests; it probably won’t be the last.

Editor:

One should notice that the Ukraine, once the richest part of the USSR, is now a basket-case after 25 years of American- and Vatican-fomented misrule. The Lvovshchina was and is the most poverty-stricken part of this amalgamation (it isn’t by any means a “nation” or a cohesive state) … where did the money come from for their expensive “Catholic University?” It came from the Vatican, the US government, and from the “Ukrainian” diaspora in the USA and Canada. Remember… the Catholics down the street had nothing to do of this, nor do most of them even know that parts of the Roman Curia wish to subject Orthodox to the Pope of Rome and make us lickspittle Uniates. However, it does speak volumes of the Orthodox who’ve sold out to semi-Uniatism (I’m thinking in particular of Alfeyev, Vassa Larina, and Paffhausen).

The outsiders are innocent (save for “Ukrainian Orthodox” and “Ukrainian Catholic” hierarchy and clergy… who’ve sold out to the Beast). Most Uniates are innocent… they only know what their clergy and institutions feed them. The collaborators in our ranks are the foulest sort about… do remember Vassa Larina’s toadying to the Jesuit “Archimandrite” Taft (and her fawning visits to Uniate parishes)… Paffhausen’s reading of a paper at a Uniate-sponsored conference… Alfeyev’s brownnosing of the Pope of the Rome. I need add nothing. Understanding for the innocent… a (figurative) knife for the guilty. Don’t hurt the innocent… do string up the guilty (meant metaphorically). I think that you do know what to do…

BMD

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