Voices from Russia

Saturday, 29 October 2016

Russia Calls the War Party’s Bluff

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Although Cold War 2.0 reached unprecedented hysterical levels, a hot war isn’t about to break out… before or after the 8 November US presidential election. From the Clinton (cash) machine… supported by a neocon/neoliberal think tank/media complex… to the British establishment and its corporate media mouthpieces, the Anglo-American self-appointed “leaders of the free world” stoke up demonisation of Russia and “Putinism” to pure incandescence. In fact, so many layers of fear and loathing veil no more than a bluff.

Let’s start with the Russian naval task force in Syria, led by the (officially designated) “heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser” Admiral Kuznetsov, which will be in the eastern Mediterranean at least until February 2017, supporting operations against all strands of Salafi-jihadism.  The Admiral Kuznetsov is fully equipped with anti-ship, air defence, artillery, and anti-submarine warfare systems… it can defend itself against a vast array of threats, unlike NATO vessels. Predictably, NATO is spinning with alarm that “all of the Northern Fleet”, along with the Baltic Fleet, is on the way to the Mediterranean. Wrong… it’s only part of the Northern Fleet, and the Baltic Fleet isn’t going anywhere. The heart of the matter is that when you add in the capabilities of this Russian naval task force with the S-300/S-400 missile systems already deployed in Syria, Russia now de facto rivals the firepower of the US Sixth Fleet. To top it off, as this comprehensive military analysis makes clear, Russia has “basically made their own no-fly zone over Syria”; and a US no-fly zone, viscerally promoted by Hillary Clinton, “is now impossible to achieve”. That should be more than enough to put into perspective the impotence transmuted into outright anger exhibited by the Pentagon and its neocon/neoliberal vassals.

Add to it the outright war between the Pentagon and the CIA in the Syrian war theatre, where the Pentagon backs the YPG Kurds, who aren’t necessarily in favour of régime change in Damascus, whilst the CIA backs further weaponising of “moderate”, as in al-Qaeda-linked and/or infiltrated, “rebels”. Compounding the trademark Obama administration Three Stooges school of foreign policy, American threats flew more liberally than Negan’s skull-crushing bloody baton in the new season of The Walking Dead. Pentagon head Ash Carter, a certified neocon, threatened “consequences”, as in “potential” strikes against Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces to “punish the régime” after the Pentagon itself broke the Kerry-Lavrov ceasefire. President Obama took some time off weighing his options. In the end, he backed off. Therefore, it’ll be up for the virtually elected… by the whole US establishment… Hillary Clinton to make the fateful decision. She won’t be able to go for a no-fly zone… because Russia is already doing it. In addition, if she decides to “punish the régime”, Moscow already telegraphed, via Minoborony Rossii spokesman Major-General Igor Konashenkov that there’d definitely be “consequences” for imposing a “shadow” hot war.

Sun Tzu Doesn’t Do First-Strike

Of course, Washington reserves for itself a “first-strike” nuclear capability, which Hillary Clinton fully supports (Donald Trump doesn’t; for that he’s demonised). If we allow the current hysteria to go nuclear, then, we must consider the matter of the S-500 anti-missile system, which effectively seals Russian airspace; Moscow won’t admit it on the record because that’d unleash a relentless arms race. A US intel source with close connections to the Masters of the Universe, but at the same time opposed to Cold War 2.0 as “counter-productive”, adds necessary nuance:

The USA lost the arms race, as it indulged in trillions of dollars of worthless and endless wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya. Now, it’s no longer a global power as it can’t defend itself with its obsolete missiles, THAAD, Patriot and Aegis Land Based Ballistic Defence System, against Russian ICBMs, even as the Russians sealed their airspace. The Russians may be as much as four generations ahead of the US.

Moreover, in the deep recesses of shadow war planning, the Pentagon knows, and the Minoborony Rossii knows, that in the event some Dr Strangelove launched a nuclear pre-emptive strike against Russia, their defensive missile systems would protect the Russian population… as well as nuclear bomb shelters in major cities. Warnings on Russian television haven’t been idle; the population knows where to go in the… terrifying… event of nuclear war breaking out. Needless to add, the ghastly possibility of US nuclear first-strike turns all these World War II-style NATO war games in Eastern Europe into a pile of meaningless propaganda stunts. So how did Moscow plan for it all? According to the US intel source:

They took out almost all the military budget from their stated federal budget, lulling the West into thinking that Russia couldn’t afford a massive military buildup; there was nothing to fear from Russia, as they were finished as a world power. The [stated] military budget was next to nothing, so there was nothing to worry about as far as the CIA was concerned. If Putin showed publicly his gigantic military buildup, the West could’ve taken immediate remedial actions as they did in 2014 by crashing the oil price.

Then, the bottom line reveals the Pentagon as totally unprepared for a hot war… even as it threatens and bluffs Russia now on a daily basis.

As Brzeziński pointed out, if this is the case, it means the USA has ceased to be a global power. The USA may continue to bluff, but those that ally with them will have nowhere to go if that bluff is called, as it’s being now called in Syria.

The US intel source was adamant:

One of the greatest military buildups in history took place right under the nose of the Russian Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina and the Ministry of Finance whilst the CIA awaited what they thought would be the inevitable Russian collapse. The CIA will wait forever and eternity for Russia to collapse. This MGB manoeuvre is sheer genius. It demonstrates that we must completely reorganise the CIA, as it’s so drowned by data inputs that they can’t connect the dots on anything. In addition, we must also reorganise the entire US military procurement system, as it can’t ever keep up if new weapon programmes, such as the F-35, take twenty years to develop and then are found obsolete before they even enter service. The Russians have a five-year development programme for each new weapons system and they’re far ahead of us in every key area.

If this analysis is correct, it goes against even the best and most precise Russian estimates, according to which military potential may be strong, asymmetrically, but still much inferior to US military might. Well-informed Western analysts know that Moscow never brags about military buildups… it’s mastered to a fault the element of surprise. Much more than calling a bluff, Moscow’s Sun Tzu tactics really rattle loudmouth Washington.

25 October 2016

Pepe Escobar

Sputnik International

https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201610251046715738-us-russia-military-analysis/

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