Voices from Russia

Saturday, 21 January 2017

Here’s How the Trump Presidency Will Play Out

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The Trump era starts now… with geopolitics and geoeconomics set for a series of imminent unpredictable cliffhangers. I argued that the strategy of Trump’s foreign policy guru Henry Kissinger to deal with the formidable Eurasia integration trio… Russia, China, and Iran… is remixed Divide and Rule; seduce Russia away from its strategic partnership with China, while harassing the weakest link, Iran. In fact, that’s how it’s already playing out… as in the outbursts of selected members of Trump’s cabinet during their US Senate hearings. Factions of US Think Tankland, referring to Nixon’s China policy, designed by Kissinger, are also excited about the possibilities of containment regarding at least one of those powers “potentially arrayed against America”. Kissinger and Dr Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzeziński are the two foremost self-described Western puppet masters in the geopolitical arena. In opposition to Kissinger, Obama’s foreign policy mentor Brzezinski, true to his Russophobia, proposed a Divide and Rule centred on seducing China. Yet, an influential New York business source, very close to the real discreet Masters of the Universe, who correctly predicted Trump’s victory weeks before the fact, after examining my argument offered not only a scathing appraisal of those cherished “puppeteers”; he volunteered to tell me how the Masters laid out the new normal directly to Trump. Let’s call him “X”.

The Nonstop China Watch

“X” starts by doing something US deep state-connected regulars, who revere their idols, never dare to, at least in public:

It’s important not to attribute too much importance to either Kissinger or Brzeziński as they’re merely fronts for those who make the decisions and it’s their job to cloak the decisions with a patina of intellectuality. Their input means relatively nothing. I use their names on occasion as I can’t use the names of those who actually make the decisions.

That’s the cue for “X” to detail the new normal:

Trump won the election with the support of the Masters to tilt towards Russia. The Masters have their tools in the media and Congress maintaining a vilification campaign against Russia, and have their puppet Brzeziński also come out against Russia, stating, “America’s global influence depends on coöperation with China”. The purpose is to threaten Russia to coöperate and place these chips on the negotiating table for Trump. In a traditional good cop-bad cop approach, they portray Donald as the good cop wanting good relations with Russia, and Congress, media, and Brzeziński are the bad cops. This is to aid Trump in the negotiations with Russia as Putin sees the “precarious” position of his friend and should be willing to make major concessions as the line goes.

That brings us to how Taiwan… and Japan… got into the mix:

Donald shows the Russian tilt by talking to the Taiwanese, demonstrating that the shift is serious. However, they decided to throw Japan into the mix as a predator against US industry, with an attack on Toyota, thoroughly deserved. That moderated the position as the Masters became afraid that the perception of our building up Japan against China would be too much of a provocation.

So expect China… as “not too much importance” Kissinger prescribed… to be under nonstop scrutiny:

The Masters decided to reindustrialise the USA and want to take jobs back from China. This is advisable from the Chinese viewpoint; for why should they sell their work to the USA for a dollar that lacks intrinsic value and get really nothing back for the work? China should have a car in every Chinese worker’s garage; they’d become a larger producer of cars than the EU, USA, and Japan combined, and their own nation will keep their wealth in their own country.

Why China over Russia? “X” noted:

In this sense, Russia, being a natural resource country with a gigantic military industrial complex (the latter being the only reason she’s secretly respected) is exempt from any tough trade talk as they hardly export anything but natural resources and military equipment. The Masters want jobs back from Mexico and Asia, including Japan, Taiwan, etc., and you see this in Trump’s attack on Japan. The main underlying reason is that the USA has lost control of the seas and can’t secure its military components during a major war. This is all that matters now and this is the giant story behind the scenes.

In only a few words, “X” details the reversal of an economic cycle:

The Masters made money out of transfer of industry to Asia (Bain Capital specialised in this), and Wall Street made money from the lower interest rates on the recycled dollars from the trade deficits. However, now, the issue is strategic; and they’ll make money on the return of industries scaling down their investments in Asia and returning them to the USA as we rebuild production here.

“X” remains quite fond of Henry Ford’s business strategy; and that’s the cue for him to address the crucial theme… national defence. According to “X”:

Ford doubled the wages he paid and made more money than any other manufacturer. The reason was that a living wage where the mother can have many children on her husband’s wage was psychologically good for productivity in his car plants and that his workers could then afford his cars. Thus, he recognised we had to have a just distribution of wealth… his admirer Steve Jobs couldn’t. Henry’s mass productivity was the wonder of the world and that won World War II for the USA. Amazon doesn’t contribute anything to national defence, being merely an internet marketing service based on computer programs, nor does Google, which merely organises data better. None of this builds a better missile or submarine except in a marginal way.

It’s the Pentagon, Stupid

So yes… this all has to do with reorganising the US military. “X” made a point to refer to a CNAS report I quoted in my initial column:

It’s very important for what is visible between the lines. That is, we’re in deep trouble being technologically behind Russia by generations in weapons, which is a follow-up on the Brzeziński quote that we’re no longer a global power.

This is a thorough wide-ranging analysis of how Russia managed to organise the best armed forces in the world. Moreover, that doesn’t even take into account the S-500 missile defence system, now entering service, which arguably seals the entirety of Russian airspace. The next generation ( S-600?) will be even more powerful. “X” does venture into Deep State taboo territory, as in how Russia, over the past decade, managed to leap far ahead of the USA, “eclipsing it as the strongest military power”. However, the game may be far from over… wishful thinking or otherwise:

We hope Secretary of Defence James Mattis will understand this, and that the Deputy Secretary of Defence has the advanced technological skills, organisational ability, and the foresight to understand that the weapons of World War III are offensive and defensive missiles, and submarines, and not air power, tanks, and aircraft carriers.

A realist, “X” admitted that the warmongering neocon/neoliberal status quo… represented by most American Deep State factions… will never abandon the default posture of unremitting hostility towards Russia, but he preferred to focus on change:

Let Tillerson reorganise the State Department along Exxon efficiencies. He may be worth something in that. He and Mattis may be gutless, but if you tell the truth to the Senate you may not be confirmed, so what they say means nothing. However, notice this about Libya. The CIA had a goal of driving China out of Africa and so does AFRICOM. That was one of the secrets to our Libyan intervention.

Not that it worked; NATO/AFRICOM turned Libya into a wasteland run by militias; they failed to drive China out of the rest of Africa. “X” also admitted:

Syria and Iran are red-lines for Russia. So is the eastern Ukraine from the Dnepr. Moscow won’t allow any régime change gambit on Tehran. China’s investments in Iranian oil and gas imply that China also won’t permit Washington’s overthrow of the Iranian government.

The going really gets tough when it comes to NATO; “X” is convinced:

Russia will invade Romania and Poland if the USA doesn’t remove those missiles from Romania and the missile commitment to Poland rescinded. The issue isn’t the worthless American defensive missiles, but the substitutability of offensive nuclear missiles in these silos. Russia won’t tolerate this risk. These aren’t subject to negotiation.

In contrast to the “perpetual threat” perpetual propaganda by the US War Party, Moscow focused on facts on the ground since the 1990s…

  • the breakup of its historic Slavic ally Serbia
  • Warsaw Pact nations and even former Soviet republics annexed by NATO, not to mention attempts to also include Georgia and the Ukraine
  • American deployment of colour revolutions
  • the “Assad must go” fiasco, as in régime change forced on Syria, with the arming of Salafi-jihadis
  • economic sanctions, an oil price war, and raids on the rouble
  • non-stop NATO harassment

“X”, fully aware of the facts, added:

Russia always wanted peace. However, they aren’t going to play a game with the Masters of the Universe that has Trump as the good guy and the Congress, CIA, etc. as the bad guy as a negotiating ploy. That’s how they see it. They don’t regard this circus as real.

The circus may be just an illusion. Or wayang… Balinese puppet theatre… as I suggested. “X” advanced a crisp interpretation of the shadow play ahead from Moscow’s point of view:

Let’s give Putin several months to see if he can work out a détente with Trump that essentially creates an autonomous eastern Ukraine, a peace treaty in Syria with Assad in place, and a withdrawal of NATO forces back to their line of defence under Ronald Reagan.

Who will prevail? The Masters or the Deep State? Brace for impact.

19 January 2017

Pepe Escobar

Sputnik International

https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201701191049765550-how-trump-presidency-will-play-out/

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