Voices from Russia

Saturday, 6 January 2018

The Ukraine Anticipates a Coup in Spring 2018… and Other Forecasts

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For the Ukraine, the past year was catastrophic in all respects… in the economy, in domestic politics, and internationally. The authorities in Kiev celebrate the USA’s commitment to supply Javelin ATGMs, but even they understand that their only use is to harm Russia. Most Ukrainian citizens can see that.

On the last day of the year, it’s customary to take stock and give forecasts for the future. Therefore, in my opinion, the simmering Maidan 2.0 won’t really amount to much of anything… it won’t affect things all that much, although it’ll bounce around throughout all of 2018. Remember how there was a tent city named after Yuliya Timoshenko in the centre of Kiev for months on end, full of homeless and tramps? Saakashvili’s Maidan will deteriorate in the same way. Closer to spring, I think that a coup is possible in the Ukraine, but Saakashvili won’t necessarily be its “tribune”.

Why can’t I name a leader of a possibly upcoming coup? The level of confidence in all Ukrainian politicians is already so abysmal that a “dark horse” could emerge in such a situation. Of course, the most controversial figure today who has a chance to oust Poroshenko is Yuliya Timoshenko. Actually, she has the highest rating [amongst politicians] in the country, but this doesn’t mean that the majority of citizens trust her. When society has a total distrust of all politicians, even a 5-6 percent approval rating looks like solid political capital. As they say, if you can’t catch a real fish, even a crawdad will do. In general, I don’t believe any of the political rankings that we have in the country today. Everything happens willy-nilly, political factions attempt this and that, you can try to redraw the political map as you will, you only need support from 3-4 percent of the people, thereby lessening the role of “leading” politicians. Right now, the Americans don’t have any reliable figure that they can use to pursue their war. They know Yuliya Timoshenko well; they have much that they could use to influence her, including threats of criminal prosecution. However, they know that Timoshenko is a cunning politician, so it’s unlikely they’d bet on her. As for the hype that the Americans would supposedly back a new leader like Vakarchuk… I don’t believe it.

Under such conditions, new leaders could appear in the country in 2018. However, unfortunately, those who could really pull the country out of its crisis have either left or they’ve simply withdrawn from politics; they don’t want to take part in the current insanity. I’m sure that former Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov could lead the country. Nevertheless, even if the people wanted him back, the present authorities wouldn’t let him return, even though he’s a politician who has stature generally, not only in the Ukraine. He’s considered trustworthy not only in the Ukraine, but also in Russia and in the West. He’s the best “compromise” figure; therefore, he’d be the most effective candidate. In these circumstances, to keep his position, Poroshenko could try to heat up the war in the Donbas to “unify an unbroken nation”. Nonetheless, the Ukraine would lose any military action, as it did in 2014. This’d lead to even greater squabbles between the factions of Poroshenko, Avakov, Turchinov, and others. I think that it’s a real danger that the Americans would try to export such political instability to Russia. Navalny and Sobchak are nothing more than reiterations of [the Americans’] Ukrainian machinations.

Finally, even in this holiday season, I’d like you to remember that somewhere, now, in the Donbass, many people, including kids and old people, huddle in their cellars, hiding from aggressor shellfire. Don’t forget that some guys, defenders of the Donbass, will wake up today, but they won’t live to see tomorrow, as they’d give their lives for Freedom and Truth in the fight against Evil! I don’t censure anyone for being happy and celebrating the holidays… I just ask you, my friends, not to forget that that’s there a war going on. Therefore, my main wish for next year is peace! I want peace in the Donbass, peace in the Ukraine, and peace in Russia! In 2019, there shouldn’t be any soldiers in the trenches or ordinary civilians hiding in basements!

Aleksei Zhuravko

31 December 2017

Antifashist

http://antifashist.com/item/ukrainu-zhdet-perevorot-k-vesne-2018-goda-i-drugie-prognozy.html

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