Voices from Russia

Thursday, 8 June 2017

Britain’s Next Prime Minister Could Likely be Jeremy Corbyn

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Jeremy Corbyn has much of the Brexit coalition on his side and more. Brexit, which in many ways put British politics on the international map for the first time since the 1960s, wasn’t supposed to happen. The Establishment in all the major parties, the business sector, academia, the mainstream media, and the arts and science community (which still hold some influence in Britain) were all opposed to it. Likewise, on the night of the vote, the polling data was so set against Brexit that a sober Nigel Farage all but conceded defeat. Several hours and several drinks later, he emerged to give a victory speech. The people who voted for Brexit voted for a number of reasons and even more crucially in a key number of geographical places.

Many people voted for Brexit because they seethed with anger over those who opposed it. The élite were unpopular and the élite didn’t want Brexit, this meant that ordinary people in middle and northern England, as well as most of Wales, voted for Brexit. Other issues ranging from European border policy to trade and nostalgia for empire played far less of a factor than many pundits thought. Brexit was a visceral vote, not a calculated vote. The EU is a élitist institution and Britain’s local élite loved it. For most people, that was enough to make them support it.

While the dishonest and discredited élites ran the pro-EU campaign, Nigel Farage spearheaded Brexit from the right, while its most prominent leftist advocate was George Galloway. Both Farage and Galloway are figures one either loves or hates, but few people can legitimately question their sincerity. After all, neither embraced causes guaranteed to get them invited to Buckingham Palace. Many thought that if two straightforward men on different sides of the political divide both embraced Brexit, it can’t be all that bad for honest ordinary people, and furthermore, contrary to what the neoliberal mainstream media said, Farage’s supporters aren’t all racist obscurantists and Galloways’ supporters aren’t “only Muslims”. Such remarks slander both men and their supporters who are ordinary, decent, and normal people of all backgrounds, who for various reasons are tired of a broken status-quo.

Jeremy Corbyn may well be on the verge of achieving something similar to Brexit, only more. Corbyn, like Brexit, is anti-establishment, and like Brexit, the entire establishment is against him… with this notable exception… small, medium, and even some big businesses. Jeremy Corbyn will certainly appeal to working class Brexit voters in England’s north and midlands as well as Wales (AKA Brexit country) who long for a Labour leader that puts bread-and-butter issues first. Corbyn is all about jobs, funding essential services, and putting hospitals before banks, schools before hedge funds, wages for real people over tax loopholes for foreign companies. This is music to the ears of a Labour base, who are alienated from Labour after years of neoliberal policies first instigated by the war criminal Tony Blair.

However, what about business, will they vote for a socialist Labour leader? Many interestingly will. Generally, most businesses of all sizes benefited from some aspects of EU membership, most crucially from the Single Market which non-EU countries Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland are a happy part of. Corbyn said he’s committed to getting Britain a deal that involves retaining the benefits of the Single Market and this made many in the business community silently sympathetic to a Labour leader who took a stand on the Single Market, whereas Conservative leader Theresa May has a policy which amounts to little more than “Frankly, I don’t give a damn”. Therefore, this means Corbyn has the working-class and wider Midlands, Northern England and Welsh Brexit vote, the anti-establishment Brexit vote, and, ironically, also the business-minded pro-Single Market Vote.

Then, there’s Scotland. Scotland voted in favour of retaining EU membership. What’s more, when Scotland held a referendum on independence from the UK in 2014, one of the biggest selling points on the “Remain Part of the UK” side was that membership of the UK guaranteed membership in the EU. My, how times have changed! Because of this, Scottish Nationalist leader Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Parliament want a new independence referendum. May responded to this call with disdain and contempt. Her refusal to engage in a dialogue with Scotland smacks of a colonial attitude when Scotland is a democratic part of the UK. It’s unreal that someone like May can think this way in the year 2017.

By contrast, Jeremy Corbyn said that he’d listen to Scotland, engage positively with the Scottish people, and, in any case, respect their exercise of democratic self-determination if that’s what they ultimately seek. This means that if the vote in England is a dead-heat, the Scottish Nationalists, who’d almost certainly win every major seat in Scotland, would have the ability to form a coalition with Corbyn and make him Prime Minister. Under this scenario, one sees that Corbyn retained much of the Brexit coalition, with the added bonus of almost all of Scotland’s backing if he eventually needs it, and more members of the business community than many think. Even those in the business community who might not like Corbyn’s tax policies realise that leaving the Single Market is a far bigger problem and one that could take much longer to reverse.

In the wealthy parts of Southern England, the Conservatives might be in for another unexpected shock. Most people in England’s wealthiest areas voted to remain in the EU and many are privately shocked that the once pro-EU Conservative party is taking such an undiplomatic and frankly unknowing approach to Brexit. Many such affluent voters might end up voting for the unambiguously pro-EU Liberal Democratic Party, who in most other policy areas are little different from mainstream moderate Conservatives. The polls that got Brexit and Trump wrong are still saying that the Conservatives will win, but only by a small margin. The reality could be very different. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour might capture most of middle and northern England, all of Wales, and find allies in Scotland. May’s Conservatives might end up losing some seats in their own affluent backyard, amongst those who still cherish the EU as much as they did when they voted against Brexit alongside former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron.

We could be looking at the most unlikely political revolution in British history… since last year, anyway. Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of a would-be Corbyn victory is that he quietly managed to build an unlikely coalition without sacrificing his principles. Perhaps, this is the real lesson of the campaign.

30 May 2017

Adam Garrie

The Duran

http://theduran.com/britains-next-prime-minister-likely-socialist-jeremy-corbyn/

Friday, 24 March 2017

24 March 2017. Terrorists Seek to Undermine Our Values… A Scots Answer to Jihadists

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Sunday, 26 June 2016

26 June 2016. Sturgeon on the Brexit… The Law of Unintended Consequences Strikes Again!

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If Scotland became independent and left NATO… a very real possibility… it’d mean that the USA wouldn’t have access to the Orkneys and the Shetlands. That’d mean that they couldn’t really secure the GIUK gap. Therefore, if Scotland voted for freedom, do watch the Yanks. Their reputation for aggression, coups, assassinations, and general mayhem is well-deserved and well-founded… they’re “exceptional”, after all. They believe that “winning is the only thing”… you turn your back on an Anglo at your own risk…

Watch for the Yanks to install Bojo as UK PM… he’s one of them in spirit and has the bloodymindedness and nastiness to do their bidding in re Scotland, Wales, and Ireland. Besides that, he was born in New York City to British parents, so he has dual citizenship. If he became PM, it’d be disastrous for the UK…

BMD

LIfeNews on the Brexit

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Ex-Ukrainian Prime Minister N Ya Azarov thought that Kiev should concentrate on solving domestic economic problems, instead of dreaming of European integration:

The result of the [Brexit] referendum has no relevance to the internal situation in the Ukraine. Our trade and economic relations with the UK are derisory. Besides, we’ve never gotten anything good from them, just empty talk. We have to think about how to get the Ukraine out of its present crisis. We aren’t moving towards the EU… we’re becoming Bangladesh. All this talk about European integration is make-believe.

In the UK referendum, the number of votes to leave the EU outweighed those favouring European integration. This led to a sharp drop in value of the UK Pound by 10 percent and pulled European stock indices into the red. After they counted the votes, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation.

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French President François Hollande commented on results of the UK Brexit referendum:

This event changes the situation in Europe. The EU will no longer be the same, and it’ll take us quite some time to take the measures to solve the emerging problems. It’ll take some time to bring it about, to put it into effect, for Europe will no longer be what it was before. We must recognise that the story has changed today; now, new events change the European situation.

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European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said:

I hope that after it leaves the EU, the UK will continue to be a close partner.

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President V V Putin confided that the Brexit wouldn’t affect Western sanctions against Russia:

These sanctions didn’t start as a bilateral matter; we’ve only responded to measures taken against our country. I emphasise that if our partners ever want to engage in constructive dialogue with us, we’re ready, we want that, and we’d respond positively to positive actions. At the same time, other parties can’t expect Russia to do things over which it has no control.

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K I  Kosachyov, head of the RF Federation Council’s International Affairs Committee told us:

If the British authorities decide to withdraw from the EU, it wouldn’t happen overnight. According to my calculations, it’d take about two years to carry out all necessary consultations, to prepare the measures to implement it, and start the actual process. After this transition period, they’d need another five years to complete it. It’d take seven years for a complete withdrawal of the UK from the EU.

After the positive outcome of the referendum in the UK, it’s likely to see further disintegration in the EU. It’s not right to gloat about it, as Europe continues to be one of Russia’s largest trading partners. Even in a time of sanctions, trade between the EU and Russia is 49 percent of the total, some 230 billion Euros (16.8 billion Roubles. 1.67 trillion Renminbi. 17.36 trillion INR. 255.7 billion USD. 332.5 billion CAD. 342 billion AUD. 186.9 billion UK Pounds) per year. I don’t share the simplistic view that if things get worse for them, it gets better for us. If the EU remains enmeshed in problems, mired in crisis, this’d affect our trade relations.

On 23 June, the UK held a referendum on whether to leave or stay in the EU. In the end, the “Leave” faction garnered nearly 17 million votes, or 52 percent of the total number of votes. The Remain” faction scored a little more than 15 million votes, only 48 percent. Against this background, world oil prices lost about 6 percent and the UK Pound weakened against the US Dollar.

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G A Zyuganov, the First Secretary of the KPRF Central Committee and KPRF Faction Leader in the RF Gosduma, told us:

The decision to withdraw from the EU taken by British citizens in the referendum showed that they weren’t willing to put up with the negative effects of globalisation. The Brussels bureaucracy engulfed them and they had to swallow its dictates; the English were the first to realise its dangers. The End of History didn’t happen, but it’s a new stage, where peoples pursue sovereign development and friendly relations with their neighbours. This is the beginning of the end of the EU, which acted as the big stick of American politicians, rather than harmonising relations.

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O A Tsaryov, former Peoples Deputy of the Ukrainian Verkhovnaya Rada, told us:

The Ukraine shouldn’t count on EU accession. After the UK referendum and its possible consequences, the EU might not even be around in a few years time. Once again, this emphasised that Kiev chose the wrong path. They sacrificed their economy’s stability in a quest for “European Integration”. Everything turned out to be in vain. They want to go where it’s already impossible to enter. They try to reassure themselves that it’s possible, that they can get into the EU eventually, but this “later” may never come, as the EU can’t survive. They lost their illusory “opportunity” to get the Ukraine into the EU.

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24 June 2016

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The Irish government intends to start a process of reunification with Northern Ireland. The main instrument of such an action could be a referendum, both in the north of the island, which is part of the UK, and in the south in the Republic of Ireland itself. However, Irish Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ireland Charlie Flanagan told the Daily Mail:

The referendum won’t be in the near future. A future united Ireland is in the interests of our citizens, but to hold a referendum at the same time that the British government negotiates its withdrawal from the EU would only cause division.

Ireland’s reunification would threaten the territorial integrity of the UK, as part of the latter is Northern Ireland. At the same time, the majority of people of Northern Ireland voted in favour of remaining in the EU, but the national vote went the other way, not taking them into account, which gave rise to even more talk about a possible referendum for independence from England.

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Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced the start of preparations for a referendum on independence from the UK. Firstly, the task is to develop a bill calling for such a referendum. This vote will be the second in recent years. In the previous referendum, the Scots voted by a whisker voted to keep Scotland in the UK. Talk about Scottish independence resumed immediately after the results of the referendum on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU became clear. According to the results of the last referendum, nearly 50 percent of Scots believed that the country should be independent. The Cabinet believe that this number increased over the last two years, especially, after the announcement that the UK is leaving the EU.

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25 June 2016

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