On Thursday, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said, “‘National Guard’ units, as well as battalions of Right Sector extremists, are attacking civilians. SBU and MVDU elements left in Donetsk and Lugansk are carrying out this crackdown on civilians. According to our data, they’ve deployed a contingent consisting of over 11,000 troops, equipped with automatic weapons. The operation involves about 160 tanks, more than 230 AIFVs and APCs, at least 150 guns and mortars, and many aircraft”.
This is the total of the military power left to the junta (it’s the size of a reinforced motor rifle division, about 9 motor rifle battalions and 4 tank battalions (if full strength). I’d say that most of the standing forces refused to move against their own people (shades of August 1991, no?), so, the junta is using the few Galician troops loyal to them, along with untrained and undisciplined “National Guard” and Right Sector rabble. Understand this… VVP HAS to act if the junta murders civilians. If he doesn’t, he loses all cred in Russia… and he WON’T do that.
By the way, the present junta force is an ad hoc unit, not a formed element that’s been in existence for some time. That is, it’d be militarily useless against a real standing force. That is, the Russian forces would smash it easily. Mind you, there’d be casualties, many of the Galician Uniate terrorists would go to ground, and it’d be the devil itself to root them out (although the eastern population wouldn’t shelter them, save for the miniscule Uniate population). By the way, the junta force is only about 25 percent larger than the forces deployed by Georgia in ’08 in South Ossetia. That is, Russia could wax their ass with a similar force to the one it deployed then, two motorised rifle divisions and two airborne divisions. The opolchenie would guard their LOC and act as local garrisons, as the South Ossetian locals did in ’08, freeing the Russian troops for manoeuvre operations (on the other hand, the junta forces would have to detail some of their units to guard the LOC to Kiev and secure restive towns). Many shortcomings came out after that war… the Minoborony hasn’t been idle in putting them right.
The chess pieces are on the board… however, never forget, they’re not inanimate tokens, they’re human beings. Blood will flow… God do preserve the people of Little Russia and New Russia.
24 April 2014