Today, the Ukraine cut off supplies of electricity to the LNR. It said that it’s preparing to do the same to the DNR. Supposedly, they decided to do this because of unpaid power bills. In reality, it’s part of the blockade the Ukraine imposed on the two People’s Republics. After some initial disruption, it seems electric power over the LNR is back to normal. This only took a few hours. Supposedly, they did this with domestic resources. Probably, they had technical help from Russia, and possibly even some supply of electricity from Russia, as this article by Deutsche Welle claimed. Indubitably, both the Russians and the two People’s Republics anticipated this move for months, and it seems they prepared for it. When the Ukrainians cut off electricity to the DNR… as I’m sure before long it will be… I expect the power supply there to resume as effortlessly as it did in the LNR.
The fact that the Ukraine cut off electric power to the LNR and intends to do likewise to the DNR further severs whatever tenuous connection remained between the Ukraine and the two Republics. Now, in all respects, they’re de facto independent states, fully separated from the Ukraine. Now, the notion that they’re still part of the Ukraine is no more than a fiction. I understand that the people of the two Republics increasingly respond to surveys that they’re no longer Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainians. Instead, they increasingly redefine themselves as Russians. I expect this trend to accelerate and intensify, and I expect that in time that the two Republics would become fully part of Russia, although I don’t know how it’d happen or how long it’d take. Of course, for many practical purposes, they’re part of Russia already.
The Ukraine’s latest move also provides further confirmation of an unspoken truth. The Ukraine has given up hope of ever regaining control of the two People’s Republics. Moreover, it’s clear that it’d rather lose control of them than implement the constitutional provisions of the Minsk Agreement. That isn’t surprising. If the Ukraine ever implemented the Minsk Agreement’s constitutional provisions, it’d mean the end of the Maidan movement’s plan of a unitary monocultural Ukraine, distanced as far from Russia as possible. There’s no evidence any member of the Maidan leadership wants to abandon this plan, and if they did, the various far-right “activists” upon whom the Maidan régime depends for its survival wouldn’t let them.
That means that the Minsk Agreement… unloved by everyone… is dead. So long as the Maidan régime remains in power, they won’t carry it out. I’d add that if the Maidan régime ever falls… as I believe one day it will… it wouldn’t resurrect the Minsk Agreement because at that point no one would need it anymore. The Minsk Agreement is a ghost in whose existence everyone pretends to believe since it continues to provide a framework around which discussions about the Ukraine between the various parties can occur. However, it’s no longer a roadmap to a peace settlement, if it ever was. Undoubtedly, Russians understand this perfectly well. Whether Western governments do is another matter.
25 April 2017