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I’ve not posted yet as I’ve watched events and I’m gathering intel from my (limited) contacts. Everyone’s convinced that a Uniate junta sucker-punch is on the way… “When we let down our guard, the bandits will strike”. Yet, as for solid evidence, THERE IS NOTHING. Let me repeat that. THERE IS NOTHING SOLID OUT THERE TO HANG ANYTHING ON. Anything that you see in the media and on the net is irresponsible and ungrounded guesses. They know no more than I do… and I have NOTHING solid to give you. Stratfor’s analysis is always crank, of course… you’d do well to remember that they don’t have much more in the way of real resources than I do. They do have some middling business and bureaucratic contacts (just as I have some low-level correspondents)… that’s all. NO SIGINT… NO ELINT… NO HUMINT… NO NOTHING. I point this up as many rightwing bloggers are repeating their “conclusions” as gospel truth… they’re not. They’re speculations… biased towards material that’ll “sell” in the marketplace. They’re not real intel operators… they’re snake oil salesmen, nothing more.
The most interesting guess that I got from a contact was that a real ceasefire was part of the gas deal between Russia and the Ukraine. There’s nothing out there to back this. That doesn’t mean that it isn’t so, but it does mean that it’s an interesting comment, not a probability (although it does seem like the sort of thing that Vova would demand, and he does have the whip hand). What we do know is that a major convoy moved through Donetsk on Saturday and that the RF Gosduma recognised the Novorossiya elections. There’s been skirmishes near Gorlovka and the Donetsk outskirts and the VSN reports slackening resistance near Mariupol. A former Natsgadi thug elected to the junta Rada threatened terrorist actions in Russia, but Russia can pay back the junta tenfold for any such folderol. However, if the fanatics leave Novorossiya to “march on Kiev” à la Mussolini, they’d abandon not only the LNR and DNR, but all of Novorossiya (that is, the territory under the Krivoi Rog and Odessa People’s Republics in 1918). The “Ukraine” would shrink to the territory held by the so-called UNR in 1918 (with Poland, Romania, and Hungary jumping in to grab what they consider theirs… American protests would be bootless, and Russia would be the gainer). In short, the situation is so volatile that no one knows anything with certainty. Do have a care… there be wooden nickels in your change.
You pays your money and you takes your choice. Break out the cards and deal out a hand of pinochle… that’s all that we grasshoppers can do at the moment…
BMD
The Ukraine on the Verge of Collapse
Tags: civil unrest, Galician nationalism, history, Novorossiya, Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, OUN, political commentary, politics, Russia, Russian, Russian history, Ukraine, Ukrainian Civil War, Ukrainian nationalism, ukrainian nationalists, Ukrainian People's Republic, UNR, war and conflict, West Ukrainian People's Republic, ZUNR
The figure on the ladder is A P Yatsenyuk… whose well-known nickname is “Rabbit” (after a character in the Sov-era Vinni Pukh multifilms). He hates this name, but everyone finds it apposite… for it fits his goofy appearance. The waggish word on the Kiev “street” is, “The Rabbit shits in a solid-gold toilet”… he’s one of the most-hated figures in the junta (his unpopularity is only exceeded by that of the Klichko brothers… whose arrogance and disregard for common folk is legendary). Yatsenyuk’s sister married an American Scientologist… so, the Americans do have a threat over his head… and Langley isn’t known for being humane and civilised.
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The Ukrainian leadership insists that it rules a single and indivisible country, but it’s falling apart before the eyes of the entire world. The junta largely ignored the idea of federalisation, even though it could save the Ukraine from collapse, despite the fact that European leaders strongly advised it to go this way. This led to the Crimea’s reunification with Russia, the war in the Donbass, and separatist sentiment in the Western Ukraine. Not only are independent political analysts convinced of this, so are many Ukrainian politicians.
V V Medvedchuk*, leader of Украинский выбор (Ukrainsky vybor: Ukrainian Choice), wrote on his blog on the Day of Unification that Ukrainian politicians should remember that centralisation has done nothing good for the country, saying:
Political analyst Sergei Mikheyev gave his views on Ukrainian unity on-air on the Россия сегодня (Rossiya segodnya: Russia Today (formerly VOR)) radio:
Crimean political scientist Denis Baturin said on Россия сегодня (Rossiya segodnya: Russia Today (formerly VOR)) radio:
23 January 2015
Kontekst
http://www.contextap.ru/news/150123091105.html
* Medvedchuk said, “I believe that there should be no the rehabilitation of those who were in the UPA. We should never treat UPAniki like veterans. They’re different; I’m strongly opposed to them now, and I’ll oppose them in future”… the present junta GLORIFIES UPA terrorists… what more need I say about them and their Uniate/schismatic/sectarian backers?
BMD