This is what happened the last time that the West and its soulless toadies provoked the Bear without provocation… they’re kicking our people again… silly wabbits…
There are two things that concern me about the current situation in the Ukraine at large and the Crimea in particular. Firstly, American and Russian forces have “fallen out of practise” in dealing with unexpected encounters. This was common enough in the Cold War, there were protocols in place, and upfront personnel were well aware of them. Besides which, everyone knew that a misstep could result in very dicey consequences at best, and no one wanted to think of the worst. Today, the forces aren’t used to operating under such strict protocols, especially, not Americans. What makes it truly harrowing is that Americans believe their own propaganda (the USA “won” the Cold War, Ronald Reagan caused the fall of the USSR, that America is the “sole superpower”, just to name the most egregious rot). That is, there’s no set doctrine in place for dealing with “hostiles in Indian country”, and first-line personnel aren’t used to dealing with such (nor are they used to keeping such in their everyday considerations). This is a recipe for a disaster. No one wants war… but many wars start through inadvertent stoking of tensions. NATO aircraft have to stay out of Russian or Ukrainian airspace, or, it could result in an inadvertent shootdown that could easily turn into something far worse (I wouldn’t believe that it’d turn into war, but it WOULD sour relations for YEARS). There is another cause that we have to take into account… diaspora Ukrainians serve in the Western forces, some of whom are fanatics who wouldn’t think twice of embroiling the West with Russia (I’ve seen “Ukrainians” up close and personal… the hate that some spew has to be seen to be believed). This is a real wild card… one that the West refuses to guard against. However, as bad as this might be, such “incidents” aren’t what worries me most.
That leads us to the second reason the present crisis is such a nailbiter. The present Ukrainian junta is a lawless, corrupt, and feckless lot; they’re so bad that they make Yanukovich look utterly innocent. Had Yuliya been faced with the Maidan, she would’ve repressed it with the maximum violence and brutality, without regard for political or international fallout. The USA annoints a junta that enshrines thievery, violence, and repression as its credo. Yanukovich didn’t throw his opponents in the slam… the junta does. Yanukovich didn’t order the police to fire on the mob… the junta would have. Yanukovich wasn’t uniquely corrupt… Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and Timoshenko all live in his neighbourhood (Yatsenyuk a mere 100 metres away), in mansions financed by the most crass sort of graft and theft. If that ain’t all, the junta has fanatics from Svoboda and the Right Sector in its “ministry”, some of whom who’re in “power ministries”. That is, we have criminals at the head of the junta, with fanatics in subordinate positions. Mind you, if things “went south” for the junta, the criminal members such as Timoshenko, Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and Avakov would flee (they’ve socked away boodle stolen from the Ukrainian treasury abroad)… but fanatics such as Tyagnibok and Yarosh would do something unhinged if they thought that their ship was going down. They could attempt actions against the Dnepr dams or the Chernobyl containment site. We’re talking about fanatics with no human consideration whatsoever. It wouldn’t concern them that their own people would suffer. This is what should worry people. Unhinged lunatics are about and they have access to “sharps”. Alternatively, Galician fanatics in the Ukrainian forces could order unauthorised attacks on the Crimea or cause blood-soaked repressions in Russian areas. No matter which way you slice this shit sandwich, it’s not appealing, is it?
We have to make it to Easter. Shall the junta last? Not only do I lack the foggiest idea, no one else knows anything, either. God do spare us… we’re in a hurtling rollercoaster car, and no one’s in control. Pass the jug… what else can we do?