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The VSN is confident that the port of Mariupol will fall in the next few days. Repeatedly, the DNR leadership staked its claim to Mariupol, and now its sending troops there again. In the last 24 hours, clashes intensified near the city…. a key port and railway junction, a major motorway crossing point, along with being a major industrial centre. Last year, during the counteroffensive, the VSN didn’t capture the city more for political and not military reasons… the advance to Mariupol halted because of orders from the political leadership, not due to the resistance offered by the so-called “National Guard”. The authorities ordered a halt, despite the fact that control of Mariupol virtually opens a direct route to the Crimea… the only major town between Mariupol and the Crimea, Berdyansk, lacks any significant geographical advantage for a defender.
During the “truce”, the junta hardened the approaches to Mariupol, digging trenches and building fortifications, mobilising the local population for labour… besides that, they sowed the fields with mines. The most-fortified area was Taganrog Street… they placed the densest installation of tank traps there, as it appeared to be the most logical axis of advance. However, now, the VSN pressures the coastal route, bypassing the roads near Taganrog Street, advancing in the open country, from the northeast. The key point there is the small village of Sartana, linked to the city by Zaozernaya Street. It’s in open steppe, which is very difficult to both attack and defend.
According to the website 0629.com.ua, clashes occurred on battle lines to the east and northeast of Mariupol. As the junta deployed the so-called Volunteer Battalion “Dnepr-1” to defend the city, the VSN fired at junta positions in Telmanovsky Raion near Sartana, next to the city, to the northeast. There is less junta artillery emplaced in Mariupol than there is near Donetsk, therefore, the VSN will be able to deploy reserves relatively freely for an offensive in-depth on a frontal arc from Granitnogo to Sartana.
Another thing about the VSN assault is that its watchword is “Mariupol, we haven’t forgetten you, we’ll be back soon”. Therefore, the VSN will be sparing in its use of artillery, to avoid civilian casualties. After all, a direct assault on fortified positions, which the junta army and the “National Guard” constructed as best they could, would be costly (not to mention the fact that the VSN doesn’t want to destroy the industry, the infrastructure, the railways, or the port). The most sensible option is to defeat the junta forces on an axis of advance on the open ground near Sartana, and not get involved in a frontal assault on Mariupol. Accordingly, these limitations in both tactics and means encourage the VSN to search for an “unconventional stroke”, if it wishes to take the city in the near future.
21 January 2015
Novorusinform
Voices from Russia 
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